Serie B, round 12 · Saturday, 21 November, 17:00 (UTC+3)

Südtirol — Cremonese

Model prediction for 21 November

Südtirol30%

Draw31%

Cremonese39%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Cremonese are slightly stronger: 39% against 30%, draw 31%.

2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 52%.

Why

By the strength ratings Cremonese are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
In recent matches the betting market rated Cremonese higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.

Facts

League table: Südtirol — No. 9, 14 pts; Cremonese — No. 12, 12 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
Südtirol: winless in 5.
Last 4 meetings: Südtirol 2 wins, Cremonese 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Südtirol — Cremonese What is xG?		1.1–1.3
Südtirol not to lose		61%
Cremonese not to lose		70%
No draw		69%
Both teams to score: yes		52%
Both teams to score: no		48%
Total over 2.5		44%
Total under 2.5		56%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Südtirol
Südtirol goals
Cremonese goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Südtirol	Cremonese
Goals scored per match	1.0	1.2
Goals conceded per match	1.1	1.0
xG per match	1.00	1.25
Opponents’ xG	1.56	1.22
Shots	11.5	11.2
On target	3.4	4.4
Corners	3.1	4.2
Cards	1.8	1.6
Possession, %	52	48

Averages per match: Südtirol — the last 10, Cremonese — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Südtirol

31.10Cesena1:1
27.10away · Padova0:2
24.10Sampdoria1:1
18.10away · Juve Stabia0:3
10.10Ascoli0:0

Cremonese

31.10Benevento2:0
27.10away · Mantova2:0
24.10Juve Stabia0:1
17.10away · Pisa1:3
10.10away · Arezzo0:0

Head to head

09.02.2025Cremonese — Südtirol3:1
30.11.2024Südtirol — Cremonese0:4
16.03.2024Südtirol — Cremonese3:0
21.10.2023Cremonese — Südtirol0:1

Full record: 4 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
8, Promotion play-offs	Pisa	10	4	3	3	18–15	+3	15
9	Südtirol	10	3	5	2	11–10	+1	14
10	Padova	10	4	2	4	10–11	-1	14
11	Juve Stabia	10	3	4	3	11–11	0	13
12	Cremonese	10	3	3	4	10–11	-1	12
13	Cesena	10	2	6	2	11–14	-3	12

Season 2026/27

Full table

Serie B on the same day

17:00
AscoliLR Vicenzapreliminary
572518
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
17:00
CarrareseVirtus Entellapreliminary
373132
XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.4
17:00
ModenaJuve Stabiapreliminary
572716
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
17:00
SampdoriaBeneventopreliminary
393131
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
19:15
CatanzaroPalermopreliminary
242650
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
21:30
EmpoliPisapreliminary
262846
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →