Serie B, round 12 · Saturday, 21 November, 17:00 (UTC+3)

Modena — Juve Stabia

Model prediction for 21 November

Modena57%

Draw27%

Juve Stabia16%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Modena are clear favourites: 57% against 16% for the opponent, draw 27%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 50%.

Why

By the strength ratings Modena are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Modena are 120 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

League table: Modena — No. 2, 20 pts; Juve Stabia — No. 11, 13 pts. A gap of 7 pts.
Last 5 meetings: Modena 3 wins, Juve Stabia 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Modena — Juve Stabia What is xG?		1.6–0.8
Modena not to lose		84%
Juve Stabia not to lose		43%
No draw		73%
Both teams to score: yes		50%
Both teams to score: no		50%
Total over 2.5		47%
Total under 2.5		53%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Modena
Modena goals
Juve Stabia goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Modena	Juve Stabia
Goals scored per match	1.8	1.1
Goals conceded per match	1.0	1.1
xG per match	1.54	1.24
Opponents’ xG	0.83	1.21
Shots	18.2	15.2
On target	5.3	4.4
Corners	5.1	4.7
Cards	1.7	1.3
Possession, %	57	54

Averages per match: Modena — the last 10, Juve Stabia — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Modena

31.10Mantova1:1
27.10away · LR Vicenza2:1
24.10Cesena3:0
17.10away · Carrarese1:2
11.10Hellas Verona3:2

Juve Stabia

01.11away · Empoli2:2
28.10Hellas Verona0:1
24.10away · Cremonese1:0
18.10Südtirol3:0
10.10away · Virtus Entella1:1

Head to head

12.05.2026Modena — Juve Stabia0:1
22.02.2026Juve Stabia — Modena1:2
02.11.2025Modena — Juve Stabia3:0
15.03.2025Juve Stabia — Modena2:1
21.09.2024Modena — Juve Stabia3:0

Full record: 5 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Promotion	Palermo	10	8	2	0	24–12	+12	26
2, Promotion	Modena	10	6	2	2	18–10	+8	20
3, Promotion play-offs	Ascoli	10	5	4	1	16–6	+10	19
10	Padova	10	4	2	4	10–11	-1	14
11	Juve Stabia	10	3	4	3	11–11	0	13
12	Cremonese	10	3	3	4	10–11	-1	12

Season 2026/27

Full table

Serie B on the same day

17:00
AscoliLR Vicenzapreliminary
572518
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
17:00
CarrareseVirtus Entellapreliminary
373132
XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.4
17:00
SampdoriaBeneventopreliminary
393131
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
17:00
SüdtirolCremonesepreliminary
303139
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4
19:15
CatanzaroPalermopreliminary
242650
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
21:30
EmpoliPisapreliminary
262846
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →