Serie B, round 12 · Saturday, 21 November, 19:15 (UTC+3)

Catanzaro — Palermo

Model prediction for 21 November

Catanzaro24%

Draw26%

Palermo50%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Palermo are clear favourites: 50% against 24% for the opponent, draw 26%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.

Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 63%.

Why

By the strength ratings Palermo are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Palermo are 149 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

League table: Catanzaro — No. 20, 6 pts; Palermo — No. 1, 26 pts. A gap of 20 pts.
Catanzaro: winless in 5; Palermo: unbeaten in 5.
Last 5 meetings: Catanzaro 2 wins, Palermo 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Catanzaro — Palermo What is xG?		1.3–1.8
Catanzaro not to lose		50%
Palermo not to lose		76%
No draw		74%
Both teams to score: yes		63%
Both teams to score: no		37%
Total over 2.5		58%
Total under 2.5		42%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Catanzaro
Catanzaro goals
Palermo goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Catanzaro	Palermo
Goals scored per match	1.1	2.8
Goals conceded per match	2.2	1.4
xG per match	1.37	2.30
Opponents’ xG	1.96	1.57
Shots	14.2	17.7
On target	4.1	6.5
Corners	5.2	3.9
Cards	2.2	1.2
Possession, %	53	49

Averages per match: Catanzaro — the last 10, Palermo — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Catanzaro

31.10Padova1:1
27.10away · Benevento1:1
24.10Ascoli1:6
16.10away · Hellas Verona2:2
11.10Mantova1:3

Palermo

01.11LR Vicenza3:1
28.10away · Pisa3:3
25.10Carrarese2:1
17.10away · Mantova2:0
10.10away · Empoli4:2

Head to head

20.05.2026Palermo — Catanzaro2:0
17.05.2026Catanzaro — Palermo3:0
01.05.2026Palermo — Catanzaro3:2
25.10.2025Catanzaro — Palermo1:0
27.04.2025Catanzaro — Palermo1:3

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Promotion	Palermo	10	8	2	0	24–12	+12	26
2, Promotion	Modena	10	6	2	2	18–10	+8	20
19, Relegation	Sampdoria	10	2	2	6	10–18	-8	8
20, Relegation	Catanzaro	10	1	3	6	11–22	-11	6

Season 2026/27

Full table

Serie B on the same day

17:00
AscoliLR Vicenzapreliminary
572518
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
17:00
CarrareseVirtus Entellapreliminary
373132
XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.4
17:00
ModenaJuve Stabiapreliminary
572716
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
17:00
SampdoriaBeneventopreliminary
393131
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
17:00
SüdtirolCremonesepreliminary
303139
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4
21:30
EmpoliPisapreliminary
262846
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →