Serie B, round 12 · Saturday, 21 November, 17:00 (UTC+3)

Carrarese — Virtus Entella

Model prediction for 21 November

Carrarese37%

Draw31%

Virtus Entella32%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Evenly matched: Carrarese 37%, Virtus Entella 32%, draw 31%.

2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 52%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Carrarese are 76 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

League table: Carrarese — No. 16, 10 pts; Virtus Entella — No. 15, 10 pts.
Last 2 meetings: Carrarese 1 win, Virtus Entella 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Carrarese — Virtus Entella What is xG?		1.2–1.1
Carrarese not to lose		68%
Virtus Entella not to lose		63%
No draw		69%
Both teams to score: yes		52%
Both teams to score: no		48%
Total over 2.5		45%
Total under 2.5		55%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Carrarese
Carrarese goals
Virtus Entella goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Carrarese	Virtus Entella
Goals scored per match	0.9	1.1
Goals conceded per match	1.3	1.2
xG per match	1.31	1.13
Opponents’ xG	1.29	0.90
Shots	13.0	14.5
On target	3.6	4.0
Corners	5.1	3.9
Cards	2.1	2.1
Possession, %	46	51

Averages per match: Carrarese — the last 10, Virtus Entella — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Carrarese

01.11away · Hellas Verona0:3
28.10Arezzo2:1
25.10away · Palermo1:2
17.10Modena2:1
11.10away · Padova2:0

Virtus Entella

31.10away · Sampdoria0:2
27.10Avellino1:1
24.10Mantova0:1
17.10away · Padova2:1
10.10Juve Stabia1:1

Head to head

08.05.2026Virtus Entella — Carrarese2:1
14.12.2025Carrarese — Virtus Entella3:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
14	Arezzo	10	3	2	5	9–19	-10	11
15	Virtus Entella	10	2	4	4	11–12	-1	10
16, Relegation play-off	Carrarese	10	3	1	6	9–13	-4	10
17, Relegation play-off	LR Vicenza	10	2	3	5	13–20	-7	9

Season 2026/27

Full table

Serie B on the same day

17:00
AscoliLR Vicenzapreliminary
572518
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
17:00
ModenaJuve Stabiapreliminary
572716
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
17:00
SampdoriaBeneventopreliminary
393131
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
17:00
SüdtirolCremonesepreliminary
303139
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4
19:15
CatanzaroPalermopreliminary
242650
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
21:30
EmpoliPisapreliminary
262846
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →