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Serie B, round 12 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)

Empoli — Pisa

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Model prediction for 21 November

Empoli26%
Draw28%
Pisa46%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Pisa are slightly stronger: 46% against 26%, draw 28%.

2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 58%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Pisa are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
  • Pisa are 99 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • League table: Empoli — No. 18, 8 pts; Pisa — No. 8, 15 pts. A gap of 7 pts.
  • Empoli: winless in 5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Empoli — Pisa What is xG?1.2–1.6
Empoli not to lose54%
Pisa not to lose74%
No draw72%
Both teams to score: yes58%
Both teams to score: no42%
Total over 2.552%
Total under 2.548%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Empoli
  • Empoli goals
  • Pisa goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatEmpoliPisa
Goals scored per match1.01.8
Goals conceded per match1.71.7
xG per match0.951.73
Opponents’ xG1.671.15
Shots11.214.6
On target3.65.4
Corners4.25.8
Cards2.32.3
Possession, %4550

Averages per match: Empoli — the last 10, Pisa — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Empoli

  • 01.11Juve Stabia2:2
  • 27.10away · Cesena1:2
  • 23.10LR Vicenza0:2
  • 17.10away · Ascoli1:1
  • 10.10Palermo2:4

Pisa

  • 01.11away · Avellino0:2
  • 28.10Palermo3:3
  • 25.10away · Hellas Verona1:1
  • 17.10Cremonese3:1
  • 10.10away · LR Vicenza3:0

Head to head

  • 17.08.2026Pisa — Empoli1:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
7, Promotion play-offsBenevento1043314–10+415
8, Promotion play-offsPisa1043318–15+315
9Südtirol1035211–10+114
17, Relegation play-offLR Vicenza1023513–20-79
18, RelegationEmpoli1022610–17-78
19, RelegationSampdoria1022610–18-88

Season 2026/27

Full table

Serie B on the same day

  • AscoliLR Vicenzapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
  • CarrareseVirtus Entellapreliminary
    XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.4
  • ModenaJuve Stabiapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
  • SampdoriaBeneventopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
  • SüdtirolCremonesepreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4
  • CatanzaroPalermopreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →