Colombian Primera A (Liga BetPlay) · Thursday, 12 November, (UTC+3)
Atlético Nacional — Once Caldas
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In short
Atlético Nacional are clear favourites: 60% against 16% for the opponent, draw 24%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Atlético Nacional are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
- Atlético Nacional are 239 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Atlético Nacional — No. 1, 36 pts; Once Caldas — No. 9, 24 pts. A gap of 12 pts.
- Atlético Nacional: unbeaten in 4; Once Caldas: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Atlético Nacional 3 wins, Once Caldas 1, 1 draw.
- Days of rest before the match: Atlético Nacional 9, Once Caldas 14.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Atlético Nacional — Once Caldas What is xG? | 1.8–0.9 | |
| Atlético Nacional not to lose | 84% | |
| Once Caldas not to lose | 40% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Atlético Nacional
- Atlético Nacional goals
- Once Caldas goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 03.11away · Bucaramanga1:1
- 30.10Santa Fe2:0
- 26.10Independiente Medellín2:1
- 23.10Deportivo Pasto3:0
- 21.10away · Cúcuta0:1
- 29.10Alianza FC1:0
- 25.10Deportivo Pereira1:1
- 21.10away · Millonarios1:1
- 18.10away · Independiente Medellín2:0
- 10.10Llaneros FC1:0
Head to head
- 02.05.2026Once Caldas — Atlético Nacional1:0
- 12.07.2025Once Caldas — Atlético Nacional1:3
- 20.06.2025Once Caldas — Atlético Nacional1:2
- 02.06.2025Atlético Nacional — Once Caldas0:0
- 26.01.2025Atlético Nacional — Once Caldas4:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Semi-final groups | Atlético Nacional | 17 | 11 | +19 | 36 |
| 2, Semi-final groups | América de Cali | 16 | 10 | +19 | 34 |
| 8, Semi-final groups | Águilas Doradas | 17 | 6 | +2 | 25 |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 17 | 6 | +3 | 24 |
| 10 | Tolima | 17 | 6 | +1 | 23 |
Colombian Primera A on the same day
- 3329382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.6
- 4129301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- 7020101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- 5426201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- 5626181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- 5427181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
- 4232261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
- 3429372The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →