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UEFA Nations League, round 5, League B, group 3 · Saturday, 14 November, (UTC+3) · Raiffeisen Arena

Austria — Ireland

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Model prediction for 14 November

Austria57%
Draw26%
Ireland18%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Austria are clear favourites: 57% against 18% for the opponent, draw 26%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 47%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Austria 1841, Ireland 1711 — Austria clearly rated higher.

Facts

  • League table: Austria — No. 1, 8 pts; Ireland — No. 2, 5 pts. A gap of 3 pts.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Austria — Ireland What is xG?1.7–0.8
Austria not to lose82%
Ireland not to lose43%
No draw74%
Both teams to score: yes47%
Both teams to score: no53%
Total over 2.546%
Total under 2.554%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Austria
  • Austria goals
  • Ireland goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatAustriaIreland
Goals scored per match1.71.8
Goals conceded per match1.40.9
xG per match1.060.79
Opponents’ xG1.140.80
Shots10.512.5
On target3.94.2
Corners3.55.2
Cards1.51.5
Possession, %5246

Averages per match: Austria — the last 10, Ireland — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Austria

  • 04.10away · Kosovo1:1
  • 01.10away · Ireland2:2
  • 27.09Kosovo3:1
  • 24.09Israel3:1
  • 02.07away · Spain0:3

Ireland

  • 04.10Israel1:1
  • 01.10Austria2:2
  • 27.09away · Israel3:0
  • 24.09away · Kosovo0:1
  • 06.06away · Canada1:1

Head to head

  • 01.10.2026Ireland — Austria2:2

Full record: 5 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveAustria42209–5+48
2, Promotion play-offsIreland41216–4+25
3Kosovo41213–4-15
4, Relegation play-offIsrael40222–7-52

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • KosovoIsraelpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
  • NorwayWalespreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
  • GeorgiaHungarypreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.4
  • PortugalDenmarkpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
  • Northern IrelandUkrainepreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.4
  • RomaniaPolandpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
  • SwedenBosnia and Herzegovinapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →