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UEFA Nations League, round 5, League B, group 4 · Saturday, 14 November, (UTC+3) · National Arena Bucharest

Romania — Poland

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Model prediction for 14 November

Romania26%
Draw27%
Poland48%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Poland are clear favourites: 48% against 26% for the opponent, draw 27%.

2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 54%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Romania 1554, Poland 1685 — Poland clearly rated higher.

Facts

  • League table: Romania — No. 4, 0 pts; Poland — No. 3, 4 pts. A gap of 4 pts.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Romania — Poland What is xG?1.1–1.6
Romania not to lose52%
Poland not to lose74%
No draw73%
Both teams to score: yes54%
Both teams to score: no46%
Total over 2.550%
Total under 2.550%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Romania
  • Romania goals
  • Poland goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatRomaniaPoland
Goals scored per match1.61.9
Goals conceded per match2.11.2
xG per match1.101.51
Opponents’ xG1.441.16
Shots13.116.2
On target4.25.6
Corners3.66.2
Cards2.22.4
Possession, %4754

Averages per match: Romania — the last 9, Poland — the last 9 matches in all competitions.

Form

Romania

  • 05.10Sweden0:1
  • 02.10away · Poland0:6
  • 28.09Bosnia and Herzegovina2:4
  • 25.09away · Sweden1:2
  • 06.06Wales2:1

Poland

  • 05.10away · Bosnia and Herzegovina0:1
  • 02.10Romania6:0
  • 28.09away · Sweden1:3
  • 25.09Bosnia and Herzegovina0:0
  • 03.06Nigeria2:2

Head to head

  • 02.10.2026Poland — Romania6:0

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveSweden43107–3+410
2, Promotion play-offsBosnia and Herzegovina42206–3+38
3Poland41127–4+34
4, Relegation play-offRomania40043–13-100

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • KosovoIsraelpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
  • NorwayWalespreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
  • GeorgiaHungarypreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.4
  • PortugalDenmarkpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
  • Northern IrelandUkrainepreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.4
  • AustriaIrelandpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
  • SwedenBosnia and Herzegovinapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →