UEFA Nations League, round 5, League B, group 4 · Saturday, 14 November, (UTC+3) · Strawberry Arena
Sweden — Bosnia and Herzegovina
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 14 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Sweden are clear favourites: 63% against 16% for the opponent, draw 22%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.0 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Sweden 1774, Bosnia and Herzegovina 1672 — Sweden rated higher.
Facts
- League table: Sweden — No. 1, 10 pts; Bosnia and Herzegovina — No. 2, 8 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sweden — Bosnia and Herzegovina What is xG? | 2.1–0.9 | |
| Sweden not to lose | 84% | |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina not to lose | 37% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 58% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 42% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Sweden
- Sweden goals
- Bosnia and Herzegovina goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Sweden | Bosnia and Herzegovina |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| xG per match | 1.03 | 0.81 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.94 | 1.01 |
| Shots | 11.3 | 11.9 |
| On target | 4.9 | 3.8 |
| Corners | 3.1 | 3.9 |
| Cards | 0.9 | 2.1 |
| Possession, % | 49 | 51 |
Form
- 05.10away · Romania1:0
- 02.10away · Bosnia and Herzegovina1:1
- 28.09Poland3:1
- 25.09Romania2:1
- 01.07away · France0:3
- 05.10Poland1:0
- 02.10Sweden1:1
- 28.09away · Romania4:2
- 25.09away · Poland0:0
- 02.07away · USA0:2
Head to head
- 02.10.2026Bosnia and Herzegovina — Sweden1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion to the league above | Sweden | 4 | 3 | +4 | 10 |
| 2, Promotion play-offs | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 4 | 2 | +3 | 8 |
| 3 | Poland | 4 | 1 | +3 | 4 |
| 4, Relegation play-off | Romania | 4 | 0 | -10 | 0 |
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- KosovoIsraelpreliminary5025251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- NorwayWalespreliminary7020111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- GeorgiaHungarypreliminary3129402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.4
- PortugalDenmarkpreliminary6023171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- Northern IrelandUkrainepreliminary3130392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.4
- AustriaIrelandpreliminary5726181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- RomaniaPolandpreliminary2627482The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 63% will not happen in roughly 37 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →