UEFA Nations League, round 5, League B, group 2 · Saturday, 14 November, 20:00 (UTC+3) · Boris Paichadze National Stadium

Georgia — Hungary

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Model prediction for 14 November

Georgia31%

Draw29%

Hungary40%

Model estimate at 08:18 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Hungary are slightly stronger: 40% against 31%, draw 29%.

2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 50%.

Why

National-team Elo: Georgia 1628, Hungary 1725 — Hungary rated higher.

Facts

League table: Georgia — No. 4, 2 pts; Hungary — No. 2, 7 pts. A gap of 5 pts.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Georgia — Hungary What is xG?		1.1–1.3
Georgia not to lose		60%
Hungary not to lose		69%
No draw		71%
Both teams to score: yes		50%
Both teams to score: no		50%
Total over 2.5		44%
Total under 2.5		56%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Georgia
Georgia goals
Hungary goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Georgia	Hungary
Goals scored per match	0.4	1.2
Goals conceded per match	1.8	0.7
xG per match	0.73	0.88
Opponents’ xG	1.68	0.64
Shots	9.6	16.4
On target	3.1	4.4
Corners	4.6	5.1
Cards	1.4	2.1
Possession, %	51	54

Averages per match: Georgia — the last 9, Hungary — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Georgia

05.10away · Northern Ireland0:0
02.10away · Hungary0:1
28.09Ukraine0:0
25.09Northern Ireland0:1
05.06Bahrain2:0

Hungary

05.10away · Ukraine2:1
02.10Georgia1:0
28.09away · Northern Ireland0:0
25.09Ukraine0:1
09.06Kazakhstan3:1

Head to head

02.10.2026Hungary — Georgia1:0

Full record: 3 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Promotion to the league above	Northern Ireland	4	2	2	0	4–0	+4	8
2, Promotion play-offs	Hungary	4	2	1	1	3–2	+1	7
3	Ukraine	4	1	1	2	2–5	-3	4
4, Relegation play-off	Georgia	4	0	2	2	0–2	-2	2

Season 2026/27

Full table

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This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →