PremiumTelegram
EN
Sections

Accounts and Premium are not available in your country; every forecast is open. New forecasts every day — in our Telegram channel.

UEFA Nations League, round 5, League A, group 4 · Saturday, 14 November, (UTC+3) · Estádio Municipal de Braga

Portugal — Denmark

☆ Save match

Model prediction for 14 November

Portugal60%
Draw23%
Denmark17%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Portugal are clear favourites: 60% against 17% for the opponent, draw 23%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.

Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 55%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Portugal 2055, Denmark 1861 — Portugal clearly rated higher.

Facts

  • League table: Portugal — No. 1, 12 pts; Denmark — No. 2, 6 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
  • Last 3 meetings: Portugal 2 wins, Denmark 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Portugal — Denmark What is xG?1.9–1.0
Portugal not to lose83%
Denmark not to lose40%
No draw77%
Both teams to score: yes55%
Both teams to score: no45%
Total over 2.556%
Total under 2.544%

181 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Portugal
  • Portugal goals
  • Denmark goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatPortugalDenmark
Goals scored per match1.92.0
Goals conceded per match0.81.6
xG per match1.451.58
Opponents’ xG1.051.09
Shots14.917.7
On target4.95.9
Corners5.06.3
Cards1.91.2
Possession, %5660

Averages per match: Portugal — the last 10, Denmark — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Portugal

  • 04.10Norway2:1
  • 01.10away · Denmark4:2
  • 27.09away · Norway2:1
  • 24.09Wales1:0
  • 06.07Spain0:1

Denmark

  • 04.10away · Wales1:0
  • 01.10Portugal2:4
  • 27.09Wales2:0
  • 24.09away · Norway2:3
  • 03.06away · DR Congo0:0

Head to head

  • 01.10.2026Denmark — Portugal2:4
  • 23.03.2025Portugal — Denmark5:2
  • 20.03.2025Denmark — Portugal1:0

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Quarter-finalsPortugal44009–4+512
2, Quarter-finalsDenmark42027–706
3, Relegation play-offNorway41036–8-23
4, Relegation play-offWales41032–5-33

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • KosovoIsraelpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
  • NorwayWalespreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
  • GeorgiaHungarypreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.4
  • Northern IrelandUkrainepreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.4
  • AustriaIrelandpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
  • RomaniaPolandpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
  • SwedenBosnia and Herzegovinapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →