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UEFA Nations League, round 5, League B, group 2 · Saturday, 14 November, (UTC+3) · Clearer Twist National Stadium at Windsor Park

Northern Ireland — Ukraine

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Model prediction for 14 November

Northern Ireland31%
Draw30%
Ukraine39%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Ukraine are slightly stronger: 39% against 31%, draw 30%.

2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 49%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Northern Ireland 1672, Ukraine 1724 — Ukraine rated higher.

Facts

  • League table: Northern Ireland — No. 1, 8 pts; Ukraine — No. 3, 4 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
  • Last 2 meetings: Northern Ireland 1 win, Ukraine 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Northern Ireland — Ukraine What is xG?1.1–1.3
Northern Ireland not to lose61%
Ukraine not to lose69%
No draw70%
Both teams to score: yes49%
Both teams to score: no51%
Total over 2.542%
Total under 2.558%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Northern Ireland
  • Northern Ireland goals
  • Ukraine goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatNorthern IrelandUkraine
Goals scored per match0.81.3
Goals conceded per match0.71.8
xG per match0.701.07
Opponents’ xG0.701.63
Shots9.611.0
On target3.23.7
Corners2.73.9
Cards1.82.9
Possession, %3651

Averages per match: Northern Ireland — the last 10, Ukraine — the last 9 matches in all competitions.

Form

Northern Ireland

  • 05.10Georgia0:0
  • 02.10away · Ukraine3:0
  • 28.09Hungary0:0
  • 25.09away · Georgia1:0
  • 08.06away · France1:3

Ukraine

  • 05.10Hungary1:2
  • 02.10Northern Ireland0:3
  • 28.09away · Georgia0:0
  • 25.09away · Hungary1:0
  • 31.05away · Poland2:0

Head to head

  • 02.10.2026Ukraine — Northern Ireland0:3
  • 03.06.2021Ukraine — Northern Ireland1:0

Full record: 5 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveNorthern Ireland42204–0+48
2, Promotion play-offsHungary42113–2+17
3Ukraine41122–5-34
4, Relegation play-offGeorgia40220–2-22

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • KosovoIsraelpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
  • NorwayWalespreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
  • GeorgiaHungarypreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.4
  • PortugalDenmarkpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
  • AustriaIrelandpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
  • RomaniaPolandpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
  • SwedenBosnia and Herzegovinapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →