UEFA Nations League, round 5, League A, group 4 · Saturday, 14 November, (UTC+3) · Ullevaal Stadion
Norway — Wales
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 14 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Norway are clear favourites: 70% against 11% for the opponent, draw 20%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 49%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Norway 1900, Wales 1681 — Norway clearly rated higher.
Facts
- League table: Norway — No. 3, 3 pts; Wales — No. 4, 3 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Norway — Wales What is xG? | 2.2–0.8 | |
| Norway not to lose | 89% | |
| Wales not to lose | 30% | |
| No draw | 80% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Norway
- Norway goals
- Wales goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Norway | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| xG per match | 1.59 | 1.07 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.41 | 0.88 |
| Shots | 12.2 | 13.8 |
| On target | 4.9 | 4.6 |
| Corners | 4.7 | 5.9 |
| Cards | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Possession, % | 52 | 58 |
Form
- 04.10Denmark0:1
- 01.10Norway2:1
- 27.09away · Denmark0:2
- 24.09away · Portugal0:1
- 06.06away · Romania1:2
Head to head
- 01.10.2026Wales — Norway2:1
Table
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- KosovoIsraelpreliminary5025251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- GeorgiaHungarypreliminary3129402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.4
- PortugalDenmarkpreliminary6023171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- Northern IrelandUkrainepreliminary3130392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.4
- AustriaIrelandpreliminary5726181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- RomaniaPolandpreliminary2627482The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
- SwedenBosnia and Herzegovinapreliminary6322161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 70% will not happen in roughly 30 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →