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UEFA Nations League, round 5, League B, group 3 · Saturday, 14 November, (UTC+3) · Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri

Kosovo — Israel

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Model prediction for 14 November

Kosovo50%
Draw25%
Israel25%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Kosovo are clear favourites: 50% against 25% for the opponent, draw 25%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.

Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 57%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Kosovo 1710, Israel 1619 — Kosovo rated higher.

Facts

  • League table: Kosovo — No. 3, 5 pts; Israel — No. 4, 2 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
  • Last 3 meetings: Kosovo 1 win, Israel 0, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Kosovo — Israel What is xG?1.7–1.2
Kosovo not to lose75%
Israel not to lose50%
No draw75%
Both teams to score: yes57%
Both teams to score: no43%
Total over 2.555%
Total under 2.545%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Kosovo
  • Kosovo goals
  • Israel goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatKosovoIsrael
Goals scored per match1.11.0
Goals conceded per match0.92.0
xG per match1.070.76
Opponents’ xG0.991.26
Shots11.410.6
On target3.83.2
Corners2.83.7
Cards1.61.4
Possession, %4552

Averages per match: Kosovo — the last 10, Israel — the last 9 matches in all competitions.

Form

Kosovo

  • 04.10Austria1:1
  • 01.10away · Israel0:0
  • 27.09away · Austria1:3
  • 24.09Ireland1:0
  • 07.06Andorra3:0

Israel

  • 04.10away · Ireland1:1
  • 01.10Kosovo0:0
  • 27.09Ireland0:3
  • 24.09away · Austria1:3
  • 03.06away · Albania1:0

Head to head

  • 01.10.2026Israel — Kosovo0:0
  • 12.11.2023Kosovo — Israel1:0
  • 25.03.2023Israel — Kosovo1:1

Full record: 3 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveAustria42209–5+48
2, Promotion play-offsIreland41216–4+25
3Kosovo41213–4-15
4, Relegation play-offIsrael40222–7-52

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • NorwayWalespreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
  • GeorgiaHungarypreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.4
  • PortugalDenmarkpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
  • Northern IrelandUkrainepreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.4
  • AustriaIrelandpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
  • RomaniaPolandpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
  • SwedenBosnia and Herzegovinapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →