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UEFA Nations League, round 6, League B, group 4 · Tuesday, 17 November, (UTC+3) · Stadion Bilino Polje

Bosnia and Herzegovina — Romania

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Model prediction for 17 November

Bosnia and Herzegovina43%
Draw28%
Romania29%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Bosnia and Herzegovina are slightly stronger: 43% against 29%, draw 28%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 51%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Bosnia and Herzegovina 1672, Romania 1554 — Bosnia and Herzegovina rated higher.

Facts

  • League table: Bosnia and Herzegovina — No. 2, 8 pts; Romania — No. 4, 0 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Bosnia and Herzegovina 4 wins, Romania 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Bosnia and Herzegovina — Romania What is xG?1.4–1.1
Bosnia and Herzegovina not to lose71%
Romania not to lose57%
No draw72%
Both teams to score: yes51%
Both teams to score: no49%
Total over 2.546%
Total under 2.554%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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  • Handicap Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina goals
  • Romania goals
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatBosnia and HerzegovinaRomania
Goals scored per match1.21.6
Goals conceded per match1.22.1
xG per match0.811.10
Opponents’ xG1.011.44
Shots11.913.1
On target3.84.2
Corners3.93.6
Cards2.12.2
Possession, %5147

Averages per match: Bosnia and Herzegovina — the last 10, Romania — the last 9 matches in all competitions.

Form

Bosnia and Herzegovina

  • 05.10Poland1:0
  • 02.10Sweden1:1
  • 28.09away · Romania4:2
  • 25.09away · Poland0:0
  • 02.07away · USA0:2

Romania

  • 05.10Sweden0:1
  • 02.10away · Poland0:6
  • 28.09Bosnia and Herzegovina2:4
  • 25.09away · Sweden1:2
  • 06.06Wales2:1

Head to head

  • 28.09.2026Romania — Bosnia and Herzegovina2:4
  • 15.11.2025Bosnia and Herzegovina — Romania3:1
  • 21.03.2025Romania — Bosnia and Herzegovina0:1
  • 26.09.2022Romania — Bosnia and Herzegovina4:1
  • 07.06.2022Bosnia and Herzegovina — Romania1:0

Full record: 9 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveSweden43107–3+410
2, Promotion play-offsBosnia and Herzegovina42206–3+38
3Poland41127–4+34
4, Relegation play-offRomania40043–13-100

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • DenmarkNorwaypreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
  • WalesPortugalpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.1
  • HungaryNorthern Irelandpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.2
  • UkraineGeorgiapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4
  • IsraelAustriapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.9
  • IrelandKosovopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
  • PolandSwedenpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →