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UEFA Nations League, round 6, League B, group 3 · Tuesday, 17 November, (UTC+3) · Nagyerdei Stadion

Israel — Austria

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Model prediction for 17 November

Israel13%
Draw21%
Austria67%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Austria are clear favourites: 67% against 13% for the opponent, draw 21%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.

Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 53%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Israel 1619, Austria 1841 — Austria clearly rated higher.

Facts

  • League table: Israel — No. 4, 2 pts; Austria — No. 1, 8 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Israel 2 wins, Austria 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Israel — Austria What is xG?0.9–2.0
Israel not to lose33%
Austria not to lose87%
No draw79%
Both teams to score: yes53%
Both teams to score: no47%
Total over 2.556%
Total under 2.544%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Israel
  • Israel goals
  • Austria goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatIsraelAustria
Goals scored per match1.01.7
Goals conceded per match2.01.4
xG per match0.761.06
Opponents’ xG1.261.14
Shots10.610.5
On target3.23.9
Corners3.73.5
Cards1.41.5
Possession, %5252

Averages per match: Israel — the last 9, Austria — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Israel

  • 04.10away · Ireland1:1
  • 01.10Kosovo0:0
  • 27.09Ireland0:3
  • 24.09away · Austria1:3
  • 03.06away · Albania1:0

Austria

  • 04.10away · Kosovo1:1
  • 01.10away · Ireland2:2
  • 27.09Kosovo3:1
  • 24.09Israel3:1
  • 02.07away · Spain0:3

Head to head

  • 24.09.2026Austria — Israel3:1
  • 12.11.2021Austria — Israel4:2
  • 04.09.2021Israel — Austria5:2
  • 10.10.2019Austria — Israel3:1
  • 24.03.2019Israel — Austria4:2

Full record: 7 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveAustria42209–5+48
2, Promotion play-offsIreland41216–4+25
3Kosovo41213–4-15
4, Relegation play-offIsrael40222–7-52

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • DenmarkNorwaypreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
  • WalesPortugalpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.1
  • HungaryNorthern Irelandpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.2
  • UkraineGeorgiapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4
  • IrelandKosovopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
  • Bosnia and HerzegovinaRomaniapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
  • PolandSwedenpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 67% will not happen in roughly 33 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →