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UEFA Nations League, round 6, League B, group 3 · Tuesday, 17 November, (UTC+3) · Aviva Stadium

Ireland — Kosovo

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Model prediction for 17 November

Ireland41%
Draw30%
Kosovo29%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Ireland are slightly stronger: 41% against 29%, draw 30%.

2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 39%, both teams to score — 46%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Ireland 1711, Kosovo 1710 — the teams are almost level on rating.

Facts

  • League table: Ireland — No. 2, 5 pts; Kosovo — No. 3, 5 pts.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Ireland — Kosovo What is xG?1.3–1.0
Ireland not to lose71%
Kosovo not to lose59%
No draw70%
Both teams to score: yes46%
Both teams to score: no54%
Total over 2.539%
Total under 2.561%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Ireland
  • Ireland goals
  • Kosovo goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatIrelandKosovo
Goals scored per match1.81.1
Goals conceded per match0.90.9
xG per match0.791.07
Opponents’ xG0.800.99
Shots12.511.4
On target4.23.8
Corners5.22.8
Cards1.51.6
Possession, %4645

Averages per match: Ireland — the last 10, Kosovo — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Ireland

  • 04.10Israel1:1
  • 01.10Austria2:2
  • 27.09away · Israel3:0
  • 24.09away · Kosovo0:1
  • 06.06away · Canada1:1

Kosovo

  • 04.10Austria1:1
  • 01.10away · Israel0:0
  • 27.09away · Austria1:3
  • 24.09Ireland1:0
  • 07.06Andorra3:0

Head to head

  • 24.09.2026Kosovo — Ireland1:0

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveAustria42209–5+48
2, Promotion play-offsIreland41216–4+25
3Kosovo41213–4-15
4, Relegation play-offIsrael40222–7-52

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • DenmarkNorwaypreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
  • WalesPortugalpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.1
  • HungaryNorthern Irelandpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.2
  • UkraineGeorgiapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4
  • IsraelAustriapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.9
  • Bosnia and HerzegovinaRomaniapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
  • PolandSwedenpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →