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UEFA Nations League, round 6, League B, group 4 · Tuesday, 17 November, (UTC+3) · Tarczynski Arena Wroclaw

Poland — Sweden

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Model prediction for 17 November

Poland37%
Draw26%
Sweden37%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Evenly matched: Poland 37%, Sweden 37%, draw 26%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.0 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.

Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 61%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Poland 1685, Sweden 1774 — Sweden rated higher.

Facts

  • League table: Poland — No. 3, 4 pts; Sweden — No. 1, 10 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
  • Last 4 meetings: Poland 1 win, Sweden 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Poland — Sweden What is xG?1.5–1.5
Poland not to lose63%
Sweden not to lose63%
No draw74%
Both teams to score: yes61%
Both teams to score: no39%
Total over 2.558%
Total under 2.542%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Poland
  • Poland goals
  • Sweden goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatPolandSweden
Goals scored per match1.91.7
Goals conceded per match1.21.8
xG per match1.511.03
Opponents’ xG1.160.94
Shots16.211.3
On target5.64.9
Corners6.23.1
Cards2.40.9
Possession, %5449

Averages per match: Poland — the last 9, Sweden — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Poland

  • 05.10away · Bosnia and Herzegovina0:1
  • 02.10Romania6:0
  • 28.09away · Sweden1:3
  • 25.09Bosnia and Herzegovina0:0
  • 03.06Nigeria2:2

Sweden

  • 05.10away · Romania1:0
  • 02.10away · Bosnia and Herzegovina1:1
  • 28.09Poland3:1
  • 25.09Romania2:1
  • 01.07away · France0:3

Head to head

  • 28.09.2026Sweden — Poland3:1
  • 31.03.2026Sweden — Poland3:2
  • 29.03.2022Poland — Sweden2:0
  • 23.06.2021Sweden — Poland3:2

Full record: 7 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveSweden43107–3+410
2, Promotion play-offsBosnia and Herzegovina42206–3+38
3Poland41127–4+34
4, Relegation play-offRomania40043–13-100

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • DenmarkNorwaypreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
  • WalesPortugalpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.1
  • HungaryNorthern Irelandpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.2
  • UkraineGeorgiapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4
  • IsraelAustriapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.9
  • IrelandKosovopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
  • Bosnia and HerzegovinaRomaniapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →