UEFA Nations League, round 6, League B, group 2 · Tuesday, 17 November, 22:45 (UTC+3) · Puskás Aréna

Hungary — Northern Ireland

Model prediction for 17 November

Hungary48%

Draw29%

Northern Ireland23%

Model estimate at 22:54 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Hungary are clear favourites: 48% against 23% for the opponent, draw 29%.

2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 39%, both teams to score — 44%.

Why

National-team Elo: Hungary 1725, Northern Ireland 1672 — Hungary rated higher.

Facts

League table: Hungary — No. 2, 7 pts; Northern Ireland — No. 1, 8 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
Last 2 meetings: Hungary 1 win, Northern Ireland 0, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Hungary — Northern Ireland What is xG?		1.4–0.9
Hungary not to lose		77%
Northern Ireland not to lose		52%
No draw		71%
Both teams to score: yes		44%
Both teams to score: no		56%
Total over 2.5		39%
Total under 2.5		61%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Hungary
Hungary goals
Northern Ireland goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Hungary	Northern Ireland
Goals scored per match	1.2	0.8
Goals conceded per match	0.7	0.7
xG per match	0.88	0.70
Opponents’ xG	0.64	0.70
Shots	16.4	9.6
On target	4.4	3.2
Corners	5.1	2.7
Cards	2.1	1.8
Possession, %	54	36

Averages per match: Hungary — the last 10, Northern Ireland — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Hungary

05.10away · Ukraine2:1
02.10Georgia1:0
28.09away · Northern Ireland0:0
25.09Ukraine0:1
09.06Kazakhstan3:1

Northern Ireland

05.10Georgia0:0
02.10away · Ukraine3:0
28.09Hungary0:0
25.09away · Georgia1:0
08.06away · France1:3

Head to head

28.09.2026Northern Ireland — Hungary0:0
29.03.2022Northern Ireland — Hungary0:1

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Promotion to the league above	Northern Ireland	4	2	2	0	4–0	+4	8
2, Promotion play-offs	Hungary	4	2	1	1	3–2	+1	7
3	Ukraine	4	1	1	2	2–5	-3	4
4, Relegation play-off	Georgia	4	0	2	2	0–2	-2	2

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

22:45
DenmarkNorwaypreliminary
392734
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
22:45
WalesPortugalpreliminary
91973
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.1
22:45
UkraineGeorgiapreliminary
412930
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4
22:45
IsraelAustriapreliminary
132167
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.9
22:45
IrelandKosovopreliminary
413029
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
22:45
Bosnia and HerzegovinaRomaniapreliminary
432829
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
22:45
PolandSwedenpreliminary
372637
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →