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UEFA Nations League, round 6, League A, group 4 · Tuesday, 17 November, (UTC+3) · Parken

Denmark — Norway

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Model prediction for 17 November

Denmark39%
Draw27%
Norway34%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Evenly matched: Denmark 39%, Norway 34%, draw 27%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 54%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Denmark 1861, Norway 1900 — Norway rated higher.

Facts

  • League table: Denmark — No. 2, 6 pts; Norway — No. 3, 3 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
  • Last 2 meetings: Denmark 1 win, Norway 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Denmark — Norway What is xG?1.4–1.3
Denmark not to lose66%
Norway not to lose61%
No draw73%
Both teams to score: yes54%
Both teams to score: no46%
Total over 2.550%
Total under 2.550%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Denmark
  • Denmark goals
  • Norway goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatDenmarkNorway
Goals scored per match2.01.9
Goals conceded per match1.61.9
xG per match1.581.59
Opponents’ xG1.091.41
Shots17.712.2
On target5.94.9
Corners6.34.7
Cards1.20.9
Possession, %6052

Averages per match: Denmark — the last 10, Norway — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Denmark

  • 04.10away · Wales1:0
  • 01.10Portugal2:4
  • 27.09Wales2:0
  • 24.09away · Norway2:3
  • 03.06away · DR Congo0:0

Norway

  • 04.10away · Portugal1:2
  • 01.10away · Wales1:2
  • 27.09Portugal1:2
  • 24.09Denmark3:2
  • 12.07England1:2

Head to head

  • 24.09.2026Norway — Denmark3:2
  • 08.06.2024Denmark — Norway3:1

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Quarter-finalsPortugal44009–4+512
2, Quarter-finalsDenmark42027–706
3, Relegation play-offNorway41036–8-23
4, Relegation play-offWales41032–5-33

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • WalesPortugalpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.1
  • HungaryNorthern Irelandpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.2
  • UkraineGeorgiapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4
  • IsraelAustriapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.9
  • IrelandKosovopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
  • Bosnia and HerzegovinaRomaniapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
  • PolandSwedenpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →