UEFA Nations League, round 6, League A, group 4 · Tuesday, 17 November, (UTC+3) · Cardiff City Stadium
Wales — Portugal
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Portugal are clear favourites: 73% against 9% for the opponent, draw 19%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Wales 1681, Portugal 2055 — Portugal clearly rated higher.
Facts
- League table: Wales — No. 4, 3 pts; Portugal — No. 1, 12 pts. A gap of 9 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Wales — Portugal What is xG? | 0.8–2.3 | |
| Wales not to lose | 27% | |
| Portugal not to lose | 91% | |
| No draw | 81% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 59% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 41% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Wales
- Wales goals
- Portugal goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Wales | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| xG per match | 1.07 | 1.45 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.88 | 1.05 |
| Shots | 13.8 | 14.9 |
| On target | 4.6 | 4.9 |
| Corners | 5.9 | 5.0 |
| Cards | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| Possession, % | 58 | 56 |
Form
- 04.10Denmark0:1
- 01.10Norway2:1
- 27.09away · Denmark0:2
- 24.09away · Portugal0:1
- 06.06away · Romania1:2
Head to head
- 24.09.2026Portugal — Wales1:0
Table
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- DenmarkNorwaypreliminary3927341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- HungaryNorthern Irelandpreliminary4829231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.2
- UkraineGeorgiapreliminary4129301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4
- IsraelAustriapreliminary1321672The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.9
- IrelandKosovopreliminary4130291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
- Bosnia and HerzegovinaRomaniapreliminary4328291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- PolandSwedenpreliminary3726371The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 73% will not happen in roughly 27 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →