Liga de Expansion MX, round 14 · Sunday, 25 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio El Encanto
Dorados — Piratas
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0:5Came true
In short
Final score 0:5: the model's most likely outcome, Piratas to win (41%), came true.
Piratas are slightly stronger: 41% against 29%, draw 29%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Piratas are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Dorados — Piratas What is xG? | 1.3–1.6 | |
| Dorados not to lose | 59% | |
| Piratas not to lose | 71% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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Match events
- 15′David Osuna · Dorados
- 37′Marcos Flores · Dorados
- 49′Diego Cruz · Piratas0:1
- 55′Angel Lopez · Piratas
- 77′Diego Cruz · Piratas0:2
- 88′Christian Fernandez · Piratas0:3
- 90′Benjamín Sánchez · Dorados
- 92′Omar Soto · Piratas0:4
- 96′Diego Sánchez · Piratas0:5
Substitutions (10)
- 46′Christian Leyva ↔ Marcos Flores · Dorados
- 46′Benjamín Sánchez ↔ Abraham Flores · Dorados
- 73′Diego García ↔ David Osuna · Dorados
- 73′Brandon Ordorica ↔ Leonardo Vargas · Dorados
- 80′Arath Egaña ↔ Christopher Castro · Dorados
- 85′Omar Soto ↔ Brian Figueroa · Piratas
- 85′Eduardo Ochoa ↔ Rolando González · Piratas
- 85′Francisco García ↔ Daniel Lajud · Piratas
- 91′Diego Sánchez ↔ Juan Gamboa · Piratas
- 91′Gabriel López ↔ Christian Fernandez · Piratas
Form
- 17.10away · Correcaminos de la UAT2:1
- 11.10Cruz Azul Hidalgo1:3
- 04.10away · Leones Negros3:6
- 27.09Alacranes de Durango0:1
- 20.09away · Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero1:1
- 18.10Tepatitlán FC3:0
- 11.10away · Tlaxcala FC2:4
- 04.10Alebrijes Oaxaca4:0
- 25.09away · Mineros de Zacatecas0:3
- 19.09Venados FC2:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atlético Morelia | 15 | 8 | +7 | 26 |
| 4 | Piratas | 15 | 7 | +12 | 25 |
| 5 | Cancún FC | 15 | 7 | +10 | 25 |
| 12 | Correcaminos de la UAT | 15 | 4 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 | Dorados | 15 | 4 | -9 | 16 |
| 14 | Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero | 15 | 4 | -10 | 15 |
Next matches
- Atlético La PazDorados31 October · Liga de Expansion MX761591The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 1:0.3.7
- PiratasTapatío1 November · Liga de Expansion MX6321151The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.3.2
Liga de Expansion MX on the same day
- 4728241The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.6
- 4828241The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:3Final score 1:3. Model's score: 2:1.2.7
- 4926251The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.3.1
- 5923181The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →