Liga de Expansion MX, round 14 · Sunday, 25 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Olímpico Carlos Iturralde Rivero
Venados FC — Alacranes de Durango
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
3:2Came true
In short
Final score 3:2: the model's most likely outcome, Venados FC to win (47%), came true.
Venados FC are clear favourites: 47% against 24% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Venados FC are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Venados FC are 78 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Venados FC: unbeaten in 4; Alacranes de Durango: unbeaten in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Venados FC — Alacranes de Durango What is xG? | 1.6–1.1 | |
| Venados FC not to lose | 76% | |
| Alacranes de Durango not to lose | 53% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 49% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 51% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Venados FC
- Venados FC goals
- Alacranes de Durango goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Match events
- 6′Jesús Moreno · Venados FC
- 23′Eduardo González · Alacranes de Durango
- 29′Santiago Naveda · Venados FC
- 40′José Múnoz · penalty · Alacranes de Durango0:1
- 43′Adolfo Domínguez · Venados FC
- 53′Luis Gutiérrez · Alacranes de Durango
- 56′Juan Angulo · Alacranes de Durango
- 65′Cesar Vega · Alacranes de Durango
- 74′Sleyther Lora · penalty · Venados FC1:1
- 76′Jared Munoz · Alacranes de Durango
- 78′José Múnoz · Alacranes de Durango1:2
- 83′Santiago Naveda · Venados FC2:2
- 92′Jared Torres · Alacranes de Durango
- 99′Lora Sleither · Venados FC3:2
Form
- 18.10away · Cancún FC1:1
- 11.10Leones Negros1:1
- 03.10away · Atlético La Paz2:1
- 27.09Atlético Morelia2:1
- 19.09away · Piratas1:2
- 18.10Tapatío5:0
- 11.10away · Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero0:0
- 04.10Mineros de Zacatecas4:2
- 27.09away · Dorados1:0
- 18.09Cruz Azul Hidalgo2:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Cancún FC | 15 | 7 | +10 | 25 |
| 6 | Venados FC | 15 | 7 | +6 | 25 |
| 7 | Alacranes de Durango | 15 | 7 | +6 | 24 |
| 8 | Tlaxcala FC | 15 | 6 | +2 | 22 |
Next matches
- Correcaminos de la UATVenados FC31 October · Liga de Expansion MX3127422The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 0:2.3.5
- Alacranes de DurangoAtlético Morelia1 November · Liga de Expansion MX4631231The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
Liga de Expansion MX on the same day
- 2929412The most likely outcome came true: 20:5Final score 0:5. Model's score: 0:1.2.9
- 4828241The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:3Final score 1:3. Model's score: 2:1.2.7
- 4926251The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.3.1
- 5923181The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →