Liga de Expansion MX, round 14 · Sunday, 25 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Tamaulipas
Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero — Atlético La Paz
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In short
Final score 1:3: the model's most likely outcome, Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero to win (48%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 48% fails in about 52 matches out of 100 on average.
Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero are clear favourites: 48% against 24% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero 4 wins, Atlético La Paz 0, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero — Atlético La Paz What is xG? | 1.6–1.1 | |
| Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero not to lose | 76% | |
| Atlético La Paz not to lose | 52% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 51% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 49% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero
- Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero goals
- Atlético La Paz goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Match events
- 16′Daniel López · Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero1:0
- 36′Ulíses Jaimes · Atlético La Paz1:1
- 40′Yahir Del Aguila · Atlético La Paz
- 48′Alberto Ríos · Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero
- 58′Martín Barragán · Atlético La Paz1:2
- 61′Ulises Zurita · Atlético La Paz
- 75′Deivoon Magaña · missed penalty · Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero
- 76′Néstor Corona · Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero
- 82′Israel Larios · Atlético La Paz1:3
Substitutions (10)
- 46′Horacio Torres ↔ Yahir Del Aguila · Atlético La Paz
- 65′Óscar Millán ↔ Marco García · Atlético La Paz
- 65′Édgar Alaffita ↔ Ángel Robles · Atlético La Paz
- 67′Jesús López ↔ Daniel López · Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero
- 71′Néstor Corona ↔ Cristian Cruz · Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero
- 80′Jordi Ferrer ↔ Martín Barragán · Atlético La Paz
- 80′Israel Larios ↔ Ulíses Jaimes · Atlético La Paz
- 86′André Ham ↔ Deivoon Magaña · Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero
- 86′Sebastián Martínez ↔ Jonathan Martínez · Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero
- 86′Eduardo Escalante ↔ Jonathan Tovar · Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero
Form
Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero
- 18.10away · Atlético Morelia2:1
- 11.10Alacranes de Durango0:0
- 03.10away · Tepatitlán FC1:3
- 26.09away · Correcaminos de la UAT0:1
- 20.09Dorados1:1
- 17.10Tlaxcala FC2:2
- 10.10away · Tapatío4:2
- 03.10Venados FC1:2
- 25.09away · Alebrijes Oaxaca3:1
- 19.09Correcaminos de la UAT3:1
Head to head
- 26.04.2026Atlético La Paz — Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero1:2
- 23.04.2026Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero — Atlético La Paz2:0
- 28.03.2026Atlético La Paz — Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero1:1
- 19.10.2025Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero — Atlético La Paz3:2
- 23.02.2025Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero — Atlético La Paz2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlético La Paz | 15 | 9 | +18 | 30 |
| 2 | Leones Negros | 15 | 9 | +14 | 30 |
| 13 | Dorados | 15 | 4 | -9 | 16 |
| 14 | Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero | 15 | 4 | -10 | 15 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 15 | 3 | -7 | 14 |
Next matches
- Atlético La PazDorados31 October · Liga de Expansion MX761591The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 1:0.3.7
- Cancún FCJaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero1 November · Liga de Expansion MX6025151The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.2.5
Liga de Expansion MX on the same day
- 4728241The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.6
- 2929412The most likely outcome came true: 20:5Final score 0:5. Model's score: 0:1.2.9
- 4926251The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.3.1
- 5923181The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →