Liga de Expansion MX, round 14 · Sunday, 25 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Tlahuicole
Tlaxcala FC — Correcaminos de la UAT
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2:0Came true
In short
Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Tlaxcala FC to win (59%), came true.
Tlaxcala FC are clear favourites: 59% against 18% for the opponent, draw 23%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.9.
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Tlaxcala FC are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- Tlaxcala FC are 167 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Tlaxcala FC: unbeaten in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: Tlaxcala FC 1 win, Correcaminos de la UAT 2, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Tlaxcala FC — Correcaminos de la UAT What is xG? | 2.1–1.1 | |
| Tlaxcala FC not to lose | 82% | |
| Correcaminos de la UAT not to lose | 41% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
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Match events
- 43′Erick Robles · Tlaxcala FC1:0
- 45′Walter Ortega · Correcaminos de la UAT
- 48′Daniel Álvarez · Tlaxcala FC
- 51′Andrés Iniestra · Tlaxcala FC
- 46′Andrés Catalán · Correcaminos de la UAT
- 64′Erick Robles · penalty · Tlaxcala FC2:0
- 81′Bryan Flores · Tlaxcala FC
- 87′Rafael Arce · Correcaminos de la UAT
Substitutions (9)
- 46′Bryan Mendoza ↔ Wiliam Guzmán · Correcaminos de la UAT
- 65′Pablo González ↔ Giovani Hernández · Tlaxcala FC
- 65′Christian ↔ Daniel Álvarez · Tlaxcala FC
- 65′Cristian González ↔ Ismael Govea · Tlaxcala FC
- 65′Tomás Sandoval ↔ Duván Mina · Correcaminos de la UAT
- 71′Jesús Hernández ↔ Miguel Ramírez · Tlaxcala FC
- 79′Joaquín Estopier ↔ Héctor Uribe · Correcaminos de la UAT
- 84′Rafael Arce ↔ Andrés Catalán · Correcaminos de la UAT
- 84′Fernando Plascencia ↔ Andrés Iniestra · Tlaxcala FC
Form
- 17.10away · Atlético La Paz2:2
- 11.10Piratas4:2
- 04.10away · Atlético Morelia1:1
- 27.09Cancún FC4:1
- 21.09away · Tapatío0:4
- 17.10Dorados1:2
- 09.10away · Alebrijes Oaxaca1:2
- 03.10Cruz Azul Hidalgo0:0
- 26.09Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero1:0
- 19.09away · Atlético La Paz1:3
Head to head
- 31.01.2026Correcaminos de la UAT — Tlaxcala FC2:1
- 24.08.2025Tlaxcala FC — Correcaminos de la UAT0:2
- 17.01.2025Correcaminos de la UAT — Tlaxcala FC1:1
- 04.08.2024Tlaxcala FC — Correcaminos de la UAT3:2
- 02.03.2024Correcaminos de la UAT — Tlaxcala FC1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Alacranes de Durango | 15 | 7 | +6 | 24 |
| 8 | Tlaxcala FC | 15 | 6 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 | Alebrijes Oaxaca | 15 | 7 | -10 | 22 |
| 11 | Tapatío | 15 | 5 | -3 | 18 |
| 12 | Correcaminos de la UAT | 15 | 4 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 | Dorados | 15 | 4 | -9 | 16 |
Next matches
- Correcaminos de la UATVenados FC31 October · Liga de Expansion MX3127422The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 0:2.3.5
- Cruz Azul HidalgoTlaxcala FC1 November · Liga de Expansion MX4628271The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.9
Liga de Expansion MX on the same day
- 4728241The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.6
- 2929412The most likely outcome came true: 20:5Final score 0:5. Model's score: 0:1.2.9
- 4828241The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:3Final score 1:3. Model's score: 2:1.2.7
- 4926251The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.3.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →