Liga de Expansion MX, round 14 · Sunday, 25 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Carlos Vega Villalba
Mineros de Zacatecas — Leones Negros
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In short
Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Mineros de Zacatecas to win (49%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 49% fails in about 51 matches out of 100 on average.
Mineros de Zacatecas are clear favourites: 49% against 25% for the opponent, draw 26%.
3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Mineros de Zacatecas are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
- Mineros de Zacatecas are 51 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Mineros de Zacatecas 2 wins, Leones Negros 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Mineros de Zacatecas — Leones Negros What is xG? | 1.8–1.3 | |
| Mineros de Zacatecas not to lose | 75% | |
| Leones Negros not to lose | 51% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
91 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Mineros de Zacatecas
- Mineros de Zacatecas goals
- Leones Negros goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Match events
- 7′Jared Escalante · Leones Negros
- 48′Luis Razo · Leones Negros0:1
- 73′Joel Pérez · Leones Negros0:2
- 91′Óscar Gil · Leones Negros
- 91′Diego Marmolejo · Mineros de Zacatecas
Substitutions (9)
- 64′Joel Pérez ↔ Jesús Brígido · Leones Negros
- 65′Kevin Loera ↔ Luis Razo · Leones Negros
- 69′Randy Ríos ↔ Adrián Villalobos · Mineros de Zacatecas
- 69′Japheth Jiménez ↔ Kevin Magaña · Mineros de Zacatecas
- 78′Weymmar Castro ↔ Alonso García · Mineros de Zacatecas
- 78′Juan Machado ↔ Pablo Padilla · Mineros de Zacatecas
- 81′Leonardo Sepúlveda ↔ Ulises Torres · Leones Negros
- 81′Daniel Torres ↔ Alejandro Carreón · Leones Negros
- 86′Luís Cervantes ↔ Justing Cano · Mineros de Zacatecas
Form
- 17.10away · Cruz Azul Hidalgo1:2
- 11.10Cancún FC2:2
- 04.10away · Alacranes de Durango2:4
- 25.09Piratas3:0
- 19.09away · Tepatitlán FC1:0
- 18.10Alebrijes Oaxaca1:2
- 11.10away · Venados FC1:1
- 04.10Dorados6:3
- 26.09away · Cruz Azul Hidalgo2:1
- 20.09away · Atlético Morelia0:2
Head to head
- 22.03.2026Leones Negros — Mineros de Zacatecas1:3
- 12.10.2025Mineros de Zacatecas — Leones Negros2:0
- 26.01.2025Mineros de Zacatecas — Leones Negros0:0
- 10.11.2024Leones Negros — Mineros de Zacatecas3:1
- 07.11.2024Mineros de Zacatecas — Leones Negros2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlético La Paz | 15 | 9 | +18 | 30 |
| 2 | Leones Negros | 15 | 9 | +14 | 30 |
| 3 | Atlético Morelia | 15 | 8 | +7 | 26 |
| 9 | Alebrijes Oaxaca | 15 | 7 | -10 | 22 |
| 10 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 15 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| 11 | Tapatío | 15 | 5 | -3 | 18 |
Next matches
- Alebrijes OaxacaMineros de Zacatecas30 October · Liga de Expansion MX3030412The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 0:1.2.9
- Leones NegrosTepatitlán FC1 November · Liga de Expansion MX741791The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:0.3.2
Liga de Expansion MX on the same day
- 4728241The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.6
- 2929412The most likely outcome came true: 20:5Final score 0:5. Model's score: 0:1.2.9
- 4828241The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:3Final score 1:3. Model's score: 2:1.2.7
- 5923181The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →