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UEFA Nations League, round 6, League C, group 4 · Monday, 16 November, (UTC+3) · A. Le Coq Arena

Estonia — Bulgaria

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Model prediction for 16 November

Estonia34%
Draw31%
Bulgaria35%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Evenly matched: Estonia 34%, Bulgaria 35%, draw 31%.

2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 38%, both teams to score — 45%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Estonia 1406, Bulgaria 1450 — Bulgaria rated higher.

Facts

  • League table: Estonia — No. 2, 6 pts; Bulgaria — No. 3, 4 pts. A gap of 2 pts.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Estonia — Bulgaria What is xG?1.1–1.1
Estonia not to lose65%
Bulgaria not to lose66%
No draw69%
Both teams to score: yes45%
Both teams to score: no55%
Total over 2.538%
Total under 2.562%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Estonia
  • Estonia goals
  • Bulgaria goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatEstoniaBulgaria
Goals scored per match0.70.8
Goals conceded per match1.32.3
xG per match1.000.77
Opponents’ xG1.242.07
Shots9.48.6
On target3.93.0
Corners3.13.4
Cards2.02.0
Possession, %4236

Averages per match: Estonia — the last 7, Bulgaria — the last 8 matches in all competitions.

Form

Estonia

  • 06.10Iceland0:0
  • 03.10Luxembourg1:0
  • 29.09away · Bulgaria0:0
  • 26.09away · Iceland1:1
  • 09.06Lithuania1:0

Bulgaria

  • 06.10away · Luxembourg2:0
  • 03.10away · Iceland0:3
  • 29.09Estonia0:0
  • 26.09Luxembourg1:2
  • 05.06away · Moldova2:2

Head to head

  • 29.09.2026Bulgaria — Estonia0:0

Full record: 3 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveIceland42207–1+68
2, Promotion play-offsEstonia41302–1+16
3Bulgaria41123–5-24
4Luxembourg41032–7-53

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • Faroe IslandsMoldovapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.4
  • KazakhstanSlovakiapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.4
  • IcelandLuxembourgpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
  • LithuaniaLiechtensteinpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.3
  • GermanyNetherlandspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.4
  • GreeceSerbiapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
  • North MacedoniaSloveniapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.1
  • SwitzerlandScotlandpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 35% will not happen in roughly 65 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →