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UEFA Nations League, round 6, League C, group 4 · Monday, 16 November, (UTC+3) · Laugardalsvöllur

Iceland — Luxembourg

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Model prediction for 16 November

Iceland64%
Draw23%
Luxembourg13%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Iceland are clear favourites: 64% against 13% for the opponent, draw 23%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 44%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Iceland 1597, Luxembourg 1383 — Iceland clearly rated higher.

Facts

  • League table: Iceland — No. 1, 8 pts; Luxembourg — No. 4, 3 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
  • Last 3 meetings: Iceland 1 win, Luxembourg 1, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Iceland — Luxembourg What is xG?1.8–0.7
Iceland not to lose87%
Luxembourg not to lose36%
No draw77%
Both teams to score: yes44%
Both teams to score: no56%
Total over 2.546%
Total under 2.554%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Iceland
  • Iceland goals
  • Luxembourg goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatIcelandLuxembourg
Goals scored per match1.00.7
Goals conceded per match1.41.3
xG per match0.810.93
Opponents’ xG0.551.25
Shots9.110.1
On target3.03.2
Corners4.13.4
Cards2.12.8
Possession, %4954

Averages per match: Iceland — the last 10, Luxembourg — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Iceland

  • 06.10away · Estonia0:0
  • 03.10Bulgaria3:0
  • 29.09away · Luxembourg3:0
  • 26.09Estonia1:1
  • 10.06away · Argentina0:3

Luxembourg

  • 06.10Bulgaria0:2
  • 03.10away · Estonia0:1
  • 29.09Iceland0:3
  • 26.09away · Bulgaria2:1
  • 06.06away · Albania1:0

Head to head

  • 29.09.2026Luxembourg — Iceland0:3
  • 13.10.2023Iceland — Luxembourg1:1
  • 08.09.2023Luxembourg — Iceland3:1

Full record: 4 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveIceland42207–1+68
2, Promotion play-offsEstonia41302–1+16
3Bulgaria41123–5-24
4Luxembourg41032–7-53

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • Faroe IslandsMoldovapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.4
  • KazakhstanSlovakiapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.4
  • EstoniaBulgariapreliminary
    XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.2
  • LithuaniaLiechtensteinpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.3
  • GermanyNetherlandspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.4
  • GreeceSerbiapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
  • North MacedoniaSloveniapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.1
  • SwitzerlandScotlandpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 64% will not happen in roughly 36 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →