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UEFA Nations League, round 6, League C, group 3 · Monday, 16 November, (UTC+3) · Tórsvøllur

Faroe Islands — Moldova

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Model prediction for 16 November

Faroe Islands51%
Draw27%
Moldova21%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Faroe Islands are clear favourites: 51% against 21% for the opponent, draw 27%.

2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 48%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Faroe Islands 1397, Moldova 1288 — Faroe Islands rated higher.

Facts

  • League table: Faroe Islands — No. 2, 4 pts; Moldova — No. 3, 4 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Faroe Islands 1 win, Moldova 1, 3 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Faroe Islands — Moldova What is xG?1.5–0.9
Faroe Islands not to lose79%
Moldova not to lose49%
No draw73%
Both teams to score: yes48%
Both teams to score: no52%
Total over 2.544%
Total under 2.556%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Faroe Islands
  • Faroe Islands goals
  • Moldova goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatFaroe IslandsMoldova
Goals scored per match1.70.7
Goals conceded per match1.32.1
xG per match1.170.86
Opponents’ xG1.441.82
Shots10.312.3
On target4.13.4
Corners4.14.3
Cards1.61.7
Possession, %3439

Averages per match: Faroe Islands — the last 7, Moldova — the last 7 matches in all competitions.

Form

Faroe Islands

  • 06.10away · Kazakhstan2:2
  • 02.10Slovakia1:1
  • 29.09away · Moldova1:1
  • 26.09Kazakhstan1:1
  • 09.06away · Latvia1:0

Moldova

  • 06.10Slovakia0:4
  • 02.10away · Kazakhstan2:1
  • 29.09Faroe Islands1:1
  • 26.09away · Slovakia0:2
  • 09.06away · Armenia1:1

Head to head

  • 29.09.2026Moldova — Faroe Islands1:1
  • 10.09.2023Faroe Islands — Moldova0:1
  • 24.03.2023Moldova — Faroe Islands1:1
  • 07.09.2021Faroe Islands — Moldova2:1
  • 25.03.2021Moldova — Faroe Islands1:1

Full record: 5 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveSlovakia43109–2+710
2, Promotion play-offsFaroe Islands40405–504
3Moldova41123–8-54
4Kazakhstan40225–7-22

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • KazakhstanSlovakiapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.4
  • EstoniaBulgariapreliminary
    XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.2
  • IcelandLuxembourgpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
  • LithuaniaLiechtensteinpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.3
  • GermanyNetherlandspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.4
  • GreeceSerbiapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
  • North MacedoniaSloveniapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.1
  • SwitzerlandScotlandpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →