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UEFA Nations League, round 6, League A, group 2 · Monday, 16 November, (UTC+3) · Olympiastadion

Germany — Netherlands

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Model prediction for 16 November

Germany41%
Draw24%
Netherlands35%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Evenly matched: Germany 41%, Netherlands 35%, draw 24%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.4 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.

Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 67%.

Facts

  • League table: Germany — No. 3, 5 pts; Netherlands — No. 1, 8 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Germany 2 wins, Netherlands 0, 3 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Germany — Netherlands What is xG?1.8–1.6
Germany not to lose65%
Netherlands not to lose59%
No draw76%
Both teams to score: yes67%
Both teams to score: no33%
Total over 2.566%
Total under 2.534%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Germany
  • Germany goals
  • Netherlands goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatGermanyNetherlands
Goals scored per match2.02.0
Goals conceded per match0.81.2
xG per match1.611.53
Opponents’ xG0.790.90
Shots18.716.6
On target6.36.2
Corners7.05.7
Cards1.11.1
Possession, %6459

Averages per match: Germany — the last 10, Netherlands — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Germany

  • 04.10away · Greece0:0
  • 01.10Serbia2:0
  • 27.09Greece0:1
  • 24.09away · Netherlands1:1
  • 29.06Paraguay1:1

Netherlands

  • 04.10Serbia2:1
  • 01.10away · Greece2:2
  • 27.09away · Serbia2:1
  • 24.09Germany1:1
  • 30.06Morocco1:1

Head to head

  • 24.09.2026Netherlands — Germany1:1
  • 14.10.2024Germany — Netherlands1:0
  • 10.09.2024Netherlands — Germany2:2
  • 26.03.2024Germany — Netherlands2:1
  • 29.03.2022Netherlands — Germany1:1

Full record: 16 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Quarter-finalsNetherlands42207–5+28
2, Quarter-finalsGreece42205–3+28
3Germany41213–2+15
4, Relegation play-offSerbia40043–8-50

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • Faroe IslandsMoldovapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.4
  • KazakhstanSlovakiapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.4
  • EstoniaBulgariapreliminary
    XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.2
  • IcelandLuxembourgpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
  • LithuaniaLiechtensteinpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.3
  • GreeceSerbiapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
  • North MacedoniaSloveniapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.1
  • SwitzerlandScotlandpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →