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UEFA Nations League, round 6, League B, group 1 · Monday, 16 November, (UTC+3) · Kybunpark

Switzerland — Scotland

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Model prediction for 16 November

Switzerland68%
Draw20%
Scotland12%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Switzerland are clear favourites: 68% against 12% for the opponent, draw 20%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.0 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.

Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 51%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Switzerland 1975, Scotland 1718 — Switzerland clearly rated higher.

Facts

  • League table: Switzerland — No. 1, 12 pts; Scotland — No. 3, 4 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
  • Last 2 meetings: Switzerland 1 win, Scotland 0, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Switzerland — Scotland What is xG?2.1–0.8
Switzerland not to lose88%
Scotland not to lose32%
No draw80%
Both teams to score: yes51%
Both teams to score: no49%
Total over 2.557%
Total under 2.543%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Switzerland
  • Switzerland goals
  • Scotland goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatSwitzerlandScotland
Goals scored per match2.11.2
Goals conceded per match0.71.1
xG per match1.641.02
Opponents’ xG0.711.03
Shots15.313.7
On target6.35.1
Corners5.14.9
Cards0.81.5
Possession, %5848

Averages per match: Switzerland — the last 10, Scotland — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Switzerland

  • 06.10North Macedonia3:0
  • 03.10Slovenia2:1
  • 29.09away · Scotland3:0
  • 26.09away · North Macedonia3:0
  • 12.07away · Argentina1:3

Scotland

  • 06.10Slovenia1:2
  • 03.10away · North Macedonia2:0
  • 29.09Switzerland0:3
  • 26.09away · Slovenia0:0
  • 25.06Brazil0:3

Head to head

  • 29.09.2026Scotland — Switzerland0:3
  • 19.06.2024Scotland — Switzerland1:1

Full record: 3 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveSwitzerland440011–1+1012
2, Promotion play-offsSlovenia42115–3+27
3Scotland41123–5-24
4, Relegation play-offNorth Macedonia40040–10-100

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • Faroe IslandsMoldovapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.4
  • KazakhstanSlovakiapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.4
  • EstoniaBulgariapreliminary
    XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.2
  • IcelandLuxembourgpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
  • LithuaniaLiechtensteinpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.3
  • GermanyNetherlandspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.4
  • GreeceSerbiapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
  • North MacedoniaSloveniapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 68% will not happen in roughly 32 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →