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UEFA Nations League, round 6, League C, group 3 · Monday, 16 November, (UTC+3) · Astana Arena

Kazakhstan — Slovakia

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Model prediction for 16 November

Kazakhstan13%
Draw24%
Slovakia64%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Slovakia are clear favourites: 64% against 13% for the opponent, draw 24%.

2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 43%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Kazakhstan 1387, Slovakia 1678 — Slovakia clearly rated higher.

Facts

  • League table: Kazakhstan — No. 4, 2 pts; Slovakia — No. 1, 10 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
  • Last 3 meetings: Kazakhstan 2 wins, Slovakia 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Kazakhstan — Slovakia What is xG?0.7–1.7
Kazakhstan not to lose36%
Slovakia not to lose87%
No draw76%
Both teams to score: yes43%
Both teams to score: no57%
Total over 2.544%
Total under 2.556%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Kazakhstan
  • Kazakhstan goals
  • Slovakia goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatKazakhstanSlovakia
Goals scored per match1.51.7
Goals conceded per match1.51.6
xG per match1.061.15
Opponents’ xG1.261.07
Shots14.114.0
On target3.94.2
Corners5.45.6
Cards3.30.9
Possession, %4758

Averages per match: Kazakhstan — the last 8, Slovakia — the last 9 matches in all competitions.

Form

Kazakhstan

  • 06.10Faroe Islands2:2
  • 02.10Moldova1:2
  • 29.09away · Slovakia1:2
  • 26.09away · Faroe Islands1:1
  • 09.06away · Hungary1:3

Slovakia

  • 06.10away · Moldova4:0
  • 02.10away · Faroe Islands1:1
  • 29.09Kazakhstan2:1
  • 26.09Moldova2:0
  • 05.06Montenegro2:2

Head to head

  • 29.09.2026Slovakia — Kazakhstan2:1
  • 13.06.2022Kazakhstan — Slovakia2:1
  • 06.06.2022Slovakia — Kazakhstan0:1

Full record: 3 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveSlovakia43109–2+710
2, Promotion play-offsFaroe Islands40405–504
3Moldova41123–8-54
4Kazakhstan40225–7-22

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • Faroe IslandsMoldovapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.4
  • EstoniaBulgariapreliminary
    XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.2
  • IcelandLuxembourgpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
  • LithuaniaLiechtensteinpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.3
  • GermanyNetherlandspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.4
  • GreeceSerbiapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
  • North MacedoniaSloveniapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.1
  • SwitzerlandScotlandpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 64% will not happen in roughly 36 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →