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UEFA Nations League, round 6, League D, group 2 · Monday, 16 November, (UTC+3) · Dariaus ir Girėno stadionas

Lithuania — Liechtenstein

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Model prediction for 16 November

Lithuania80%
Draw17%
Liechtenstein4%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Lithuania are clear favourites: 80% against 4% for the opponent, draw 17%.

2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 39%, both teams to score — 24%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Lithuania 1278, Liechtenstein 887 — Lithuania clearly rated higher.

Facts

  • League table: Lithuania — No. 2, 4 pts; Liechtenstein — No. 3, 1 pt. A gap of 3 pts.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Lithuania — Liechtenstein What is xG?1.9–0.3
Lithuania not to lose96%
Liechtenstein not to lose20%
No draw83%
Both teams to score: yes24%
Both teams to score: no76%
Total over 2.539%
Total under 2.561%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Lithuania
  • Lithuania goals
  • Liechtenstein goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatLithuaniaLiechtenstein
Goals scored per match0.70.0
Goals conceded per match1.72.8
xG per match0.960.22
Opponents’ xG1.412.53
Shots10.33.2
On target3.00.6
Corners3.50.6
Cards1.81.8
Possession, %5325

Averages per match: Lithuania — the last 6, Liechtenstein — the last 5 matches in all competitions.

Form

Lithuania

  • 04.10away · Azerbaijan0:1
  • 30.09Andorra3:0
  • 27.09Azerbaijan1:1
  • 24.09away · Liechtenstein2:0
  • 09.06away · Estonia0:1

Liechtenstein

  • 05.10Gibraltar0:2
  • 01.10away · Azerbaijan0:0
  • 27.09away · Malta0:2
  • 24.09Lithuania0:2
  • 07.06Cyprus0:2

Head to head

  • 24.09.2026Liechtenstein — Lithuania0:2

Full record: 5 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveAzerbaijan31202–1+15
2, Promotion to the league aboveLithuania31113–2+14
3, Promotion to the league aboveLiechtenstein20110–2-21

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • Faroe IslandsMoldovapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.4
  • KazakhstanSlovakiapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.4
  • EstoniaBulgariapreliminary
    XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.2
  • IcelandLuxembourgpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
  • GermanyNetherlandspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.4
  • GreeceSerbiapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
  • North MacedoniaSloveniapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.1
  • SwitzerlandScotlandpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 80% will not happen in roughly 20 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →