Taca de Portugal (Portuguese Cup), round 4 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)
Farense — Fátima
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Farense are clear favourites: 69% against 12% for the opponent, draw 19%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Farense are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
- Farense are 352 points higher on Elo.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Farense — Fátima What is xG? | 2.3–0.8 | |
| Farense not to lose | 88% | |
| Fátima not to lose | 31% | |
| No draw | 81% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
182 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Farense
- Farense goals
- Fátima goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Team news
Form
- 17.10AD Marco 093:0
- 20.09away · Sacavenense1:0
- 17.12Benfica0:2
- 23.11Silves FC5:1
- 18.10away · AD Marco 093:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Taca de Portugal on the same day
- SanjoanenseAcadémicapreliminary3427402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- Gil VicenteOlhanensepreliminary791471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.4
- VianenseRio Avepreliminary1823592The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
- Vitória de SernacheLusitânia Lourosapreliminary3327402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- Estrela da AmadoraPortimonensepreliminary3927351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- União de LeiriaLeçapreliminary4626281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- TorreenseBenficapreliminary714802The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 69% will not happen in roughly 31 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →