Taca de Portugal (Portuguese Cup), round 4 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)
Torreense — Benfica
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Benfica are clear favourites: 80% against 7% for the opponent, draw 14%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.4 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 47%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Benfica are about 1.5 goals per match stronger.
- Benfica are 320 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Benfica: 5 wins in a row.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Torreense — Benfica What is xG? | 0.7–2.7 | |
| Torreense not to lose | 20% | |
| Benfica not to lose | 93% | |
| No draw | 86% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 66% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 34% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Torreense
- Torreense goals
- Benfica goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Torreense | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| xG per match | 0.90 | 2.14 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.43 | 0.94 |
| Shots | 8.3 | 17.3 |
| On target | 3.4 | 5.6 |
| Corners | 4.0 | 6.5 |
| Cards | 2.0 | 3.2 |
| Possession, % | 42 | 60 |
Form
- 22.10away · Ferencváros1:4
- 15.10Sunderland1:2
- 17.09away · Lillestrøm2:1
- 24.05away · Sporting CP2:1
- 23.04AD Fafe2:0
- 02.11Alverca1:0
- 26.10away · Santa Clara2:1
- 22.10away · Omonia Nicosia4:1
- 15.10Celtic4:1
- 11.10Vitória de Guimarães2:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Taca de Portugal on the same day
- SanjoanenseAcadémicapreliminary3427402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- Gil VicenteOlhanensepreliminary791471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.4
- VianenseRio Avepreliminary1823592The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
- FarenseFátimapreliminary6919121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- Vitória de SernacheLusitânia Lourosapreliminary3327402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- Estrela da AmadoraPortimonensepreliminary3927351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- União de LeiriaLeçapreliminary4626281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 80% will not happen in roughly 20 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →