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UEFA Nations League, round 6, League D, group 1 · Monday, 16 November, (UTC+3) · Europa Point Stadium

Gibraltar — Malta

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Model prediction for 16 November

Gibraltar14%
Draw25%
Malta61%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Malta are clear favourites: 61% against 14% for the opponent, draw 25%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 45%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Gibraltar 1036, Malta 1263 — Malta clearly rated higher.

Facts

  • League table: Gibraltar — No. 2, 2 pts; Malta — No. 1, 7 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
  • Last 3 meetings: Gibraltar 0 wins, Malta 2, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Gibraltar — Malta What is xG?0.7–1.8
Gibraltar not to lose39%
Malta not to lose86%
No draw75%
Both teams to score: yes45%
Both teams to score: no55%
Total over 2.545%
Total under 2.555%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Gibraltar
  • Gibraltar goals
  • Malta goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatGibraltarMalta
Goals scored per match0.30.9
Goals conceded per match2.01.8
xG per match0.261.49
Opponents’ xG2.621.54
Shots4.010.6
On target1.04.4
Corners1.63.6
Cards1.92.1
Possession, %3547

Averages per match: Gibraltar — the last 7, Malta — the last 8 matches in all competitions.

Form

Gibraltar

  • 05.10away · Liechtenstein2:0
  • 01.10away · Malta1:1
  • 27.09Andorra0:0
  • 23.09Sao Tome and Principe0:0
  • 06.06Cayman Islands4:1

Malta

  • 04.10Andorra1:0
  • 01.10Gibraltar1:1
  • 27.09Liechtenstein2:0
  • 24.09away · Andorra2:1
  • 05.06away · Azerbaijan2:0

Head to head

  • 01.10.2026Malta — Gibraltar1:1
  • 06.09.2023Malta — Gibraltar1:0
  • 07.10.2020Malta — Gibraltar2:0

Full record: 4 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveMalta32104–2+27
2, Promotion to the league aboveGibraltar20201–102
3, Promotion to the league aboveAndorra30121–3-21

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • Faroe IslandsMoldovapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.4
  • KazakhstanSlovakiapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.4
  • EstoniaBulgariapreliminary
    XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.2
  • IcelandLuxembourgpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
  • LithuaniaLiechtensteinpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.3
  • GermanyNetherlandspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.4
  • GreeceSerbiapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
  • North MacedoniaSloveniapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →