AFC Champions League Elite, round 5 · Tuesday, 24 November, (UTC+3)
Newcastle Jets — Kashiwa Reysol
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Kashiwa Reysol are clear favourites: 49% against 26% for the opponent, draw 25%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Kashiwa Reysol are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- Kashiwa Reysol are 158 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Newcastle Jets: 3 defeats in a row; Kashiwa Reysol: unbeaten in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Newcastle Jets — Kashiwa Reysol What is xG? | 1.2–1.7 | |
| Newcastle Jets not to lose | 51% | |
| Kashiwa Reysol not to lose | 74% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Newcastle Jets
- Newcastle Jets goals
- Kashiwa Reysol goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Newcastle Jets | Kashiwa Reysol |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| xG per match | 1.71 | 1.23 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.66 | 1.31 |
| Shots | 14.8 | 15.4 |
| On target | 4.7 | 5.7 |
| Corners | 6.1 | 6.0 |
| Cards | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Possession, % | 57 | 51 |
Form
- 03.11Shanghai Port2:4
- 31.10Wellington Phoenix0:3
- 27.10away · Kyoto Sanga FC2:5
- 24.10Macarthur FC1:1
- 17.10away · Central Coast Mariners2:2
- 03.11Daejeon Hana Citizen2:0
- 31.10Urawa Red Diamonds4:0
- 27.10away · Ratchaburi FC0:0
- 24.10away · Kashima Antlers3:2
- 21.10away · FC Tokyo0:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
AFC Champions League Elite on the same day
- Daejeon Hana CitizenBeijing Guoanpreliminary5623211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.0
- Kyoto Sanga FCPohang Steelerspreliminary5623201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
- Công An Hà NộiVissel Kobepreliminary2625492The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.9
- Ratchaburi FCJohor Darul Ta'zimpreliminary3626382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- Shanghai PortBuriram Unitedpreliminary4026341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai FCAl Qadsiahpreliminary2124552The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.9
- Al Nassr FCAl-Saddpreliminary831151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 4:03.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →