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The model’s week: 12 October – 18 October
The model’s most likely outcome came true in 454 of 778 matches (58%), against the 57% it expected — well within a normal week’s variation.
- matches predicted
- 778
- picks came true
- 58%
- the model expected
- 57%
- upsets
- 86
By sport
| Sport | Matches | Came true | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Football | 396 | 56% | 52% |
| Hockey | 161 | 59% | 59% |
| Tennis | 145 | 61% | 65% |
| Basketball | 46 | 61% | 65% |
Confident calls that came true
Biggest misses
There were 86 upsets — wins by a side the model gave 30% or less — and it expected about 78.1.
GKS Katowice3:0Zawiercie
4%for the winner96%favourite — Zawiercie
PAOK Thessaloniki1:3Kalamata
6%for the winner82%favourite — PAOK Thessaloniki
Paredes1:0Famalicão
8%for the winner77%favourite — Famalicão
FC Twente1:2FC Utrecht
9%for the winner73%favourite — FC Twente
Fátima1:0Académico Viseu
9%for the winner75%favourite — Académico Viseu
Bergs Z.2:0Alcaraz C.
10%for the winner90%favourite — Alcaraz C.
By league
| League | Matches | Came true | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTA | 90 | 60% | 66% |
| ATP | 55 | 64% | 63% |
| NHL | 51 | 59% | 58% |
| AHL | 37 | 68% | 57% |
| MLS | 30 | 50% | 47% |
| Taca de Portugal | 27 | 41% | 56% |
| Championship | 24 | 46% | 49% |
| EuroLeague | 20 | 65% | 67% |
| Liiga | 18 | 39% | 60% |
| Champions League | 18 | 61% | 51% |
| Conference League | 18 | 72% | 60% |
| Europa League | 18 | 67% | 56% |
| Belgian Cup | 16 | 81% | 72% |
| EuroCup | 16 | 50% | 62% |
| DEL | 14 | 57% | 61% |
| Segunda Division | 14 | 64% | 44% |
| SHL | 14 | 79% | 61% |
| National League | 14 | 50% | 61% |
| Czech Extraliga | 13 | 54% | 59% |
| Liga ACB | 10 | 70% | 67% |
| Premier League | 10 | 60% | 50% |
| J1 League | 10 | 70% | 49% |
| La Liga | 10 | 70% | 54% |
| Ekstraklasa | 10 | 60% | 45% |
| Serie A | 10 | 50% | 53% |
| Serie B | 10 | 30% | 48% |
| Bundesliga | 9 | 56% | 52% |
| 2. Bundesliga | 9 | 56% | 43% |
| Ghana Premier League | 9 | 67% | 50% |
| Ligue 1 | 9 | 67% | 53% |
| Ligue 2 | 9 | 33% | 45% |
| Eredivisie | 9 | 44% | 61% |
| Eliteserien | 9 | 78% | 53% |
| Allsvenskan | 9 | 67% | 52% |
| Super Lig | 9 | 89% | 55% |
| Egyptian Premier League | 8 | 75% | 42% |
| Botola Pro | 8 | 13% | 47% |
| Nigeria NPFL | 8 | 38% | 56% |
| SA Premiership | 8 | 38% | 50% |
| Ukrainian Premier League | 8 | 38% | 49% |
Only leagues with at least 8 matches in the week: on fewer the share says nothing.
Each match counts with the model’s last estimate before kick-off, the one its page showed; hockey includes overtime. A week runs Monday to Sunday, UTC+3.