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The model’s week: 19 October – 25 October
The model’s most likely outcome came true in 565 of 1009 matches (56%), against the 56% it expected — well within a normal week’s variation.
- matches predicted
- 1009
- picks came true
- 56%
- the model expected
- 56%
- upsets
- 82
By sport
| Sport | Matches | Came true | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Football | 517 | 50% | 49% |
| Hockey | 171 | 58% | 59% |
| Tennis | 199 | 62% | 64% |
| Basketball | 71 | 72% | 66% |
Confident calls that came true
Biggest misses
There were 82 upsets — wins by a side the model gave 30% or less — and it expected about 88.7.
Bodø/Glimt0:1Vålerenga
4%for the winner88%favourite — Bodø/Glimt
Sporting CP1:2Académico Viseu
6%for the winner81%favourite — Sporting CP
Sporting CP2:3LASK
8%for the winner78%favourite — Sporting CP
Rybakina E.0:0Kudermetova P.
11%for the winner89%favourite — Rybakina E.
Barcelona1:2Real Madrid
11%for the winner69%favourite — Barcelona
VfB Stuttgart2:3Borussia Mönchengladbach
13%for the winner66%favourite — VfB Stuttgart
By league
| League | Matches | Came true | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coupe de France | 153 | 47% | 44% |
| ATP | 106 | 60% | 64% |
| WTA | 93 | 65% | 64% |
| NHL | 46 | 57% | 58% |
| AHL | 37 | 57% | 59% |
| NBA | 36 | 69% | 64% |
| Liiga | 22 | 64% | 60% |
| J1 League | 20 | 35% | 49% |
| National League | 20 | 50% | 59% |
| Champions League | 18 | 67% | 61% |
| Conference League | 18 | 44% | 52% |
| Europa League | 18 | 50% | 56% |
| Czech Extraliga | 16 | 50% | 59% |
| EuroCup | 16 | 69% | 69% |
| Saudi Pro League | 16 | 69% | 57% |
| MLS | 16 | 50% | 46% |
| DEL | 15 | 73% | 61% |
| SHL | 15 | 60% | 61% |
| UFC | 14 | 50% | 62% |
| Championship | 13 | 46% | 46% |
| Serie A | 12 | 83% | 52% |
| Premier League | 11 | 45% | 51% |
| La Liga | 11 | 55% | 53% |
| Segunda Division | 11 | 55% | 50% |
| Egyptian Premier League | 10 | 40% | 45% |
| EuroLeague | 10 | 80% | 68% |
| Ekstraklasa | 10 | 60% | 46% |
| Serie B | 10 | 40% | 47% |
| Liga ACB | 9 | 78% | 70% |
| Bundesliga | 9 | 44% | 55% |
| 2. Bundesliga | 9 | 44% | 46% |
| Ghana Premier League | 9 | 44% | 57% |
| Eredivisie | 9 | 44% | 47% |
| Nigeria NPFL | 9 | 33% | 62% |
| Primeira Liga | 9 | 33% | 57% |
| Allsvenskan | 9 | 33% | 57% |
| Ukrainian Premier League | 9 | 44% | 58% |
| Belgian Pro League | 8 | 50% | 55% |
| Ligue 1 | 8 | 38% | 50% |
| Ligue 2 | 8 | 63% | 50% |
| Eliteserien | 8 | 75% | 56% |
| Serie A1 (W) | 8 | 88% | 75% |
| PlusLiga | 8 | 63% | 72% |
Only leagues with at least 8 matches in the week: on fewer the share says nothing.
Each match counts with the model’s last estimate before kick-off, the one its page showed; hockey includes overtime. A week runs Monday to Sunday, UTC+3.