EuroCup (basketball) · Wednesday, 7 October, MSK · Messe Chemnitz
Chemnitz — Neptunas
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93:84Came true
In short
Final score 93:84: the model's most likely outcome, Chemnitz to win (65% incl. overtime), came true.
Chemnitz are clear favourites: 65% against 35% for the opponent.
The model expects a score around 85:80 — 165 points in total.
Over 164.5 points (incl. overtime) — 50%.
Why
- Team strength against the league average: Chemnitz −5.0, Neptunas −7.6 points in regulation.
Probabilities
| Expected points (incl. overtime): Chemnitz — Neptunas | 85.2–80.1 | |
| Total over 164.5 (incl. OT) | 50% | |
| Total under 164.5 (incl. OT) | 50% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All handicaps
- All totals
- Chemnitz points
- Neptunas points
- Regulation 1X2
- Offence and defence strength
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Form
- 29.09away · Tofas69:82
- 11.03away · Cedevita Olimpija65:73
- 11.02away · Turk Telekom62:79
- 04.02Trento81:67
- 27.01away · Buducnost81:97
- 29.09Trento73:76
- 11.02Bahcesehir Kol.86:91
- 04.02away · Aris64:83
- 28.01Hapoel Jerusalem98:92
- 21.01away · Manresa96:97
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
Group C
| # | Team | W | L | PCT | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Playoffs | Basket Napoli | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | — |
| 2, Playoffs | Tofas | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | — |
| 3, Playoffs | Chemnitz | 2 | 1 | .667 | 0.5 |
| 4, Playoffs | Buducnost | 1 | 1 | .500 | 1 |
| 5 | Slask Wroclaw | 1 | 1 | .500 | 1 |
| 6 | Trento | 1 | 2 | .333 | 1.5 |
| 7 | Neptunas | 1 | 2 | .333 | 1.5 |
| 8 | JL Bourg | 0 | 3 | .000 | 2.5 |
Next matches
- NeptunasJL Bourg13 October · EuroCup34662The most likely outcome did not happen: 293:89Final score 93:89. Model's score: —.170.2
- TrentoChemnitz13 October · EuroCup55451The most likely outcome did not happen: 180:88Final score 80:88. Model's score: —.157.9
EuroCup on the same day
- 31692The most likely outcome came true: 260:101Final score 60:101. Model's score: —.162.6
- 39612The most likely outcome did not happen: 298:92Final score 98:92. Model's score: —.173.5
- 56441The most likely outcome came true: 193:80Final score 93:80. Model's score: —.164.0
- 65351The most likely outcome came true: 189:83Final score 89:83. Model's score: —.166.1
- 55451The most likely outcome came true: 192:87Final score 92:87. Model's score: —.162.1
- 58421The most likely outcome came true: 1101:89Final score 101:89. Model's score: —.177.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 65% will not happen in roughly 35 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →