Austrian Bundesliga predictions: match probabilities and table

Austrian Bundesliga predictions

Friday, 16 October

20:30
Rapid WienHartberg
74188
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9

Saturday, 17 October

18:00
Austria LustenauLASK
112068
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.5
20:30
RiedAustria Wien
462925
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8

Sunday, 18 October

15:30
SalzburgAltach
73198
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.9
15:30
Wolfsberger ACWSG Tirol
393031
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
18:00
Sturm GrazGrazer AK
632314
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.8

Friday, 23 Octoberpreliminary estimates

20:30
AltachAustria Wien
453025
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5

Saturday, 24 Octoberpreliminary estimates

18:00
HartbergWolfsberger AC
452926
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
18:00
WSG TirolGrazer AK
423128
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
20:30
Rapid WienAustria Lustenau
80146
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.4

Sunday, 25 Octoberpreliminary estimates

16:30
Sturm GrazRied
582418
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.2
19:00
LASKSalzburg
442828
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2

Friday, 30 Octoberpreliminary estimates

21:30
Grazer AKHartberg
492923
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5

Saturday, 31 Octoberpreliminary estimates

19:00
AltachRied
423028
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
21:30
LASKWSG Tirol
78157
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2

Sunday, 1 Novemberpreliminary estimates

16:30
SalzburgAustria Lustenau
8694
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.8
16:30
Wolfsberger ACSturm Graz
222851
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
19:00
Austria WienRapid Wien
232948
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.6

Results · last 30 days; the model's pick came true in 3 of 6, it expected 47%

Sunday, 11 October

15:30
HartbergAustria Lustenau
512722
1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 4:3. Model's score: 2:1.2.7
15:30
AltachWolfsberger AC
512722
1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
18:00
LASKRapid Wien
562520
1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:0.3.1

Saturday, 10 October

18:00
WSG TirolRied
373033
XThe most likely outcome did not happen: XFinal score 1:2. Model's score: 2:2.2.8
18:00
Grazer AKSalzburg
202851
2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 0:0. Model's score: 0:1.2.7
20:30
Austria WienSturm Graz
303040
2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:2.2.5

Sunday, 20 September

15:30
HartbergLASK
———
Final score 3:3. Model's score: —.—
15:30
RiedWolfsberger AC
———
Final score 4:1. Model's score: —.—
18:00
SalzburgSturm Graz
———
Final score 3:0. Model's score: —.—

Saturday, 19 September

18:00
Austria LustenauAltach
———
Final score 2:0. Model's score: —.—
20:30
Grazer AKAustria Wien
———
Final score 2:2. Model's score: —.—

Friday, 18 September

20:30
Rapid WienWSG Tirol
———
Final score 3:0. Model's score: —.—

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Championship round	Rapid Wien	8	7	0	1	23–7	+16	21
2, Championship round	Salzburg	8	5	3	0	18–4	+14	18
3, Championship round	LASK	8	5	1	2	19–9	+10	16
4, Championship round	Sturm Graz	8	4	2	2	10–9	+1	14
5, Championship round	Ried	8	3	2	3	13–13	0	11
6, Championship round	Hartberg	8	3	2	3	14–16	-2	11
7, Relegation round	Grazer AK	8	2	3	3	6–16	-10	9
8, Relegation round	Austria Lustenau	8	2	2	4	11–15	-4	8
9, Relegation round	WSG Tirol	8	2	2	4	10–14	-4	8
10, Relegation round	Austria Wien	8	2	1	5	7–15	-8	7
11, Relegation round	Altach	8	2	0	6	8–12	-4	6
12, Relegation round	Wolfsberger AC	8	1	2	5	7–16	-9	5

Table «Home», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1	Rapid Wien	4	4	0	0	15–1	+14	12
2	Salzburg	4	4	0	0	13–2	+11	12
3	LASK	4	3	0	1	10–3	+7	9
4	Ried	4	2	1	1	7–4	+3	7
5	Sturm Graz	3	2	1	0	4–2	+2	7
6	Austria Lustenau	4	2	1	1	5–6	-1	7
7	Hartberg	5	2	1	2	10–12	-2	7
8	Altach	4	2	0	2	8–5	+3	6
9	Grazer AK	4	1	3	0	4–3	+1	6
10	Wolfsberger AC	4	1	1	2	5–7	-2	4
11	Austria Wien	4	1	0	3	2–6	-4	3
12	WSG Tirol	4	0	2	2	4–8	-4	2

Table «Away», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1	Rapid Wien	4	3	0	1	8–6	+2	9
2	LASK	4	2	1	1	9–6	+3	7
3	Sturm Graz	5	2	1	2	6–7	-1	7
4	Salzburg	4	1	3	0	5–2	+3	6
5	WSG Tirol	4	2	0	2	6–6	0	6
6	Hartberg	3	1	1	1	4–4	0	4
7	Ried	4	1	1	2	6–9	-3	4
8	Austria Wien	4	1	1	2	5–9	-4	4
9	Grazer AK	4	1	0	3	2–13	-11	3
10	Austria Lustenau	4	0	1	3	6–9	-3	1
11	Wolfsberger AC	4	0	1	3	2–9	-7	1
12	Altach	4	0	0	4	0–7	-7	0

Championship round
Relegation round

Season 2026/27 · zones by the regulations, the final allocation may depend on cup winners

About the competition

3.0goals per match
50%home wins
21%draws
29%away wins
63%over 2.5 goals
52%both teams scored

49%

How often the model’s most likely outcome came true over 579 Austrian Bundesliga matches since 7 October 2023. On average the model gave the favourite 48%, so it does not overstate its confidence. How we check

Season leaders

Best attackRapid Wien23 goals in 8 matches
Best defenceSalzburg4 conceded in 8 matches
Best formRapid Wien12 points in the last 5

Season 2026/27, regular-season matches played. 3.0 goals per match on average.