DEL (German hockey league) · Friday, 9 October, MSK · SAP Garden
Munchen — ERC Ingolstadt
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1:5Missed
In short
Final score 1:5: the model's most likely outcome, Munchen to win (63% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 63% fails in about 37 matches out of 100 on average.
Munchen are clear favourites: 63% to win including overtime and shootout.
5.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.0).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 59%.
Why
- Munchen are more dangerous in attack: 3.3 expected goals against 2.6.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Munchen — ERC Ingolstadt | 3.3–2.6 | |
| Munchen to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 63% | |
| ERC Ingolstadt to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 37% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 59% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 41% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Munchen
- Munchen goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 04.10Augsburger Panther4:2
- 02.10away · Kolner4:2
- 27.09Frankfurt Lowen1:4
- 25.09away · Bremerhaven4:1
- 20.09away · Grizzly Wolfsburg3:4 OT
- 04.10Kolner3:6
- 02.10away · Krefeld Pinguine1:3
- 27.09Adler Mannheim3:2 OT
- 25.09away · Straubing Tigers1:4
- 20.09Nurnberg Ice Tigers2:6
Head to head
- 04.04.2026ERC Ingolstadt — Munchen3:7
- 02.04.2026Munchen — ERC Ingolstadt6:3
- 31.03.2026ERC Ingolstadt — Munchen7:2
- 29.03.2026Munchen — ERC Ingolstadt5:2
- 27.03.2026ERC Ingolstadt — Munchen1:6
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Nurnberg Ice Tigers | 9 | 5 | +6 | 16 |
| 4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Munchen | 8 | 4 | +1 | 15 |
| 5, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Straubing Tigers | 8 | 4 | +8 | 14 |
| 10, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Frankfurt Lowen | 8 | 2 | +1 | 9 |
| 11 | ERC Ingolstadt | 8 | 2 | -7 | 9 |
| 12 | Bremerhaven | 8 | 3 | -7 | 9 |
Next matches
- ERC IngolstadtFrankfurt Lowen11 October · DEL72281The most likely outcome did not happen: 118%2:3SOFinal score 2:3 in a shootout. Model's score: 4:2.5.8
- SchwenningerMunchen11 October · DEL39612The most likely outcome came true: 221%3:4Final score 3:4. Model's score: 2:4.5.3
DEL on the same day
- 37632The most likely outcome did not happen: 220%3:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:4.5.9
- 65351The most likely outcome came true: 120%5:0Final score 5:0. Model's score: 4:2.5.8
- 65351The most likely outcome did not happen: 120%1:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 4:2.5.9
- 45552The most likely outcome came true: 221%2:5Final score 2:5. Model's score: 2:3.5.5
- 70301The most likely outcome came true: 120%11:4Final score 11:4. Model's score: 4:2.5.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →