Primera Nacional, round 36 · Saturday, 31 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Ofelia Rosenzuaig
Agropecuario — Almagro
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
2:1Came true
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Agropecuario to win (57%), came true.
Agropecuario are clear favourites: 57% against 17% for the opponent, draw 26%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 2.3 in total, against a competition average of 1.9.
Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 45%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Agropecuario are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- Agropecuario are 123 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Last 3 meetings: Agropecuario 1 win, Almagro 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Agropecuario — Almagro What is xG? | 1.6–0.8 | |
| Agropecuario not to lose | 83% | |
| Almagro not to lose | 43% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 45% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 55% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 44% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 56% |
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- Handicap Agropecuario
- Agropecuario goals
- Almagro goals
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Match events
- 6′Alejandro Gagliardi · Agropecuario1:0
- 18′Uriel Villalobos · Almagro
- 43′Joel Orlando · Almagro1:1
- 56′Brian Negro · Almagro
- 63′Juan Cruz Vega · Agropecuario2:1
- 68′Julián Vitale · Almagro
- 86′Natanael Pereyra · Agropecuario
Substitutions (10)
- 46′Rodrigo Mosqueira ↔ Jarol Heritier · Agropecuario
- 46′Juan Fernández Pinto ↔ Uriel Villalobos · Almagro
- 69′Claudio Salto ↔ Enzo Martínez · Almagro
- 73′Nicolás Tolosa ↔ Pedro Blanco · Almagro
- 75′Lorenzo Barrera ↔ Danilo Díaz · Agropecuario
- 75′Marcos Millanes ↔ Alejandro Gagliardi · Agropecuario
- 81′Thiago López ↔ Jeremías Bustos · Almagro
- 86′Santiago Gallucci ↔ Juan Cruz Vega · Agropecuario
- 93′Roman Sanchez ↔ Julián Marchioni · Almagro
- 94′Tomás Lecanda ↔ Braian Aranda · Agropecuario
Lineups
Agropecuario
- GKLuciano Acosta
- DFAlan Pérez
- DFFacundo Sánchez
- DFDanilo Actis
- MFEnzo Aguirre
- MFBraian Aranda
- MFNatanael Pereyra
- FWJuan Cruz Vega86′
- FWJarol Heritier46′
- FWAlejandro Gagliardi75′
- FWDanilo Díaz75′
Came on (4)
- MFRodrigo Mosqueira44′
- MFSantiago Gallucci4′
- FWLorenzo Barrera15′
- FWMarcos Millanes15′
Almagro
- GKSebastián Anchoverri
- DFBrian Negro
- DFJulián Vitale
- DFJoaquin Flores
- DFPedro Blanco73′
- MFJulián Marchioni
- MFEnzo Martínez69′
- MFJeremías Bustos81′
- MFUriel Villalobos46′
- FWFacundo De La Vega
- FWJoel Orlando
Came on (4)
- DFNicolás Tolosa17′
- MFClaudio Salto21′
- MFJuan Fernández Pinto44′
- FWThiago López9′
Form
- 25.10away · Patronato de Parana2:0
- 17.10Colegiales0:3
- 10.10away · Quilmes1:0
- 04.10CA Ferrocarril Midland0:0
- 27.09away · Atlanta0:1
- 24.10Tristán Suárez1:1
- 18.10away · Atlético Güemes1:2
- 10.10Chacarita Juniors2:1
- 04.10away · San Martín San Juan2:1
- 27.09Nueva Chicago0:1
Head to head
- 13.06.2026Almagro — Agropecuario2:1
- 20.08.2023Agropecuario — Almagro1:1
- 08.04.2023Almagro — Agropecuario0:1
Primera Nacional on the same day
- 363331XThe most likely outcome came true: X0:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:1.2.0
- 4430261The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.3
- 2229492The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.4
- 6025151The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 3:0.2.5
- 5626181The most likely outcome came true: 15:1Final score 5:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
- 2931402The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:1, exactly right.2.3
- 4531231The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.0
- 5728141The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →