Primera Nacional, round 36 · Saturday, 31 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Dr. Osvaldo Francisco Baletto
San Telmo — Central Norte
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1:0Came true
In short
Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, San Telmo to win (45%), came true.
San Telmo are clear favourites: 45% against 23% for the opponent, draw 31%.
2.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (1.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 37%, both teams to score — 42%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- San Telmo are 51 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Central Norte: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 3 meetings: San Telmo 2 wins, Central Norte 0, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: San Telmo — Central Norte What is xG? | 1.2–0.8 | |
| San Telmo not to lose | 77% | |
| Central Norte not to lose | 55% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 42% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 58% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 37% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 63% |
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- Handicap San Telmo
- San Telmo goals
- Central Norte goals
- Corners and cards
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Match events
- 44′Gabriel Paredes · San Telmo
- 57′Maximiliano Ribero · Central Norte
- 60′Elías Brítez · San Telmo1:0
- 80′Kevin Isa · Central Norte
- 84′Leonardo Felissia · Central Norte
Substitutions (9)
- 46′Maximiliano Ribero ↔ Tomás Castro · Central Norte
- 46′Joaquín Mateo ↔ Gianluca Mancuso · Central Norte
- 62′Javier Iritier ↔ Renzo Uriburu · San Telmo
- 62′Iñaki Larthirigoyen ↔ Gabriel Paredes · San Telmo
- 69′Rodrigo Dinocco ↔ Martín Batallini · San Telmo
- 75′Érik Bodencer ↔ Pablo Mauricio Rosales · Central Norte
- 75′Kevin Isa ↔ Matías Villarreal · Central Norte
- 87′Aryan Jazbec ↔ Patricio Romero · San Telmo
- 87′Alexis Nunez ↔ Nicolás Molina · San Telmo
Lineups
San Telmo
- GKJoaquín Enrico
- DFFacundo Roncaglia
- DFGabriel Paredes62′
- DFJuan Motroni
- DFPatricio Romero87′
- DFEmanuel Díaz
- MFElías Brítez
- MFRenzo Uriburu62′
- FWNicolás Molina87′
- FWMartín Batallini69′
- FWJerónimo Porto
Came on (5)
- MFJavier Iritier28′
- FWIñaki Larthirigoyen28′
- DFRodrigo Dinocco21′
- MFAryan Jazbec3′
- FWAlexis Nunez3′
Central Norte
- GKJoaquín Hass
- DFElías Calderón
- DFAgustín Lamosa
- DFPedro Sanz
- DFLeonardo Felissia
- DFPablo Mauricio Rosales75′
- MFTomás Castro46′
- MFMatías Villarreal75′
- MFGianluca Mancuso46′
- MFFranco Vedoya
- FWFrancisco Borda
Came on (4)
- FWKevin Isa15′
- FWÉrik Bodencer15′
- MFJoaquín Mateo44′
- MFMaximiliano Ribero44′
Form
- 25.10away · Deportivo Madryn1:4
- 19.10CA Defensores de Belgrano0:0
- 12.10away · Ciudad de Bolívar0:1
- 04.10Almirante Brown3:2
- 27.09away · Club Atlético Mitre2:0
- 25.10Acassuso0:0
- 18.10away · CA Chaco For Ever2:1
- 11.10Ferro Carril Oeste1:1
- 04.10Racing de Córdoba1:1
- 27.09away · Deportivo Madryn0:0
Head to head
- 14.06.2026Central Norte — San Telmo0:0
- 14.09.2025San Telmo — Central Norte3:1
- 13.05.2025Central Norte — San Telmo1:2
Primera Nacional on the same day
- 363331XThe most likely outcome came true: X0:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:1.2.0
- 5726171The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- 4430261The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.3
- 2229492The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.4
- 6025151The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 3:0.2.5
- 5626181The most likely outcome came true: 15:1Final score 5:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
- 2931402The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:1, exactly right.2.3
- 5728141The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →