Primera Nacional, round 36 · Saturday, 31 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Don León Kolbovski
Atlanta — CA Ferrocarril Midland
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
0:0Missed
In short
Final score 0:0: the model's most likely outcome, Atlanta to win (44%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 44% fails in about 56 matches out of 100 on average.
Atlanta are slightly stronger: 44% against 26%, draw 30%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 2.3 in total, against a competition average of 1.9.
Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 50%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Atlanta are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
- Atlanta are 84 points higher on Elo.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Atlanta — CA Ferrocarril Midland What is xG? | 1.3–1.0 | |
| Atlanta not to lose | 74% | |
| CA Ferrocarril Midland not to lose | 56% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 43% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 57% |
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Match events
- 79′Martín García · Atlanta
Substitutions (10)
- 30′Matías Flores ↔ Jeremías Perales · CA Ferrocarril Midland
- 46′Franco Cáceres ↔ Jeremías Puch · Atlanta
- 64′Lautaro Laharque ↔ Isaías Andrada · CA Ferrocarril Midland
- 64′Federico Álvarez ↔ Federico Bisanz · Atlanta
- 75′Federico Castro ↔ Ignacio Rodríguez · Atlanta
- 75′Dylan Argüello ↔ Rodrigo Sosa · Atlanta
- 82′Mariano Penepil ↔ Luciano Leonel Recalde · CA Ferrocarril Midland
- 83′Dylan Aguilar ↔ Nicolás Violini · CA Ferrocarril Midland
- 83′Matías Abbruzzese ↔ Ramiro Luna · CA Ferrocarril Midland
- 87′Gonzalo Miranda ↔ Rodrigo Moreira · Atlanta
Lineups
Atlanta
- GKJuan Rago
- DFJavier Ostachuk
- DFMartín García
- DFRodrigo Sosa75′
- DFRodrigo Moreira87′
- MFFrancisco Romero
- MFBraian Rivero
- MFFederico Bisanz64′
- MFJeremías Puch46′
- FWIgnacio Rodríguez75′
- FWAlejandro Quintana
Came on (5)
- FWFederico Castro15′
- MFFranco Cáceres44′
- FWFederico Álvarez26′
- DFDylan Argüello15′
- FWGonzalo Miranda3′
CA Ferrocarril Midland
- GKMauro Leguiza
- DFLuciano Leonel Recalde82′
- DFIsaías Andrada64′
- DFGenaro Cepeda
- DFPablo Casarico
- MFRamiro Luna83′
- MFNicolás Violini83′
- MFJesús Camaño
- MFMarcos Roseti
- FWJeremías Perales30′
- FWEzequiel Bulacio
Came on (5)
- DFLautaro Laharque26′
- DFMariano Penepil8′
- MFMatías Flores60′
- MFDylan Aguilar7′
- MFMatías Abbruzzese7′
Form
- 25.10away · Gimnasia Jujuy2:1
- 17.10away · Gimnasia y Tiro1:3
- 11.10San Martín de Tucumán1:0
- 04.10away · Atlético Rafaela3:2
- 27.09Agropecuario1:0
- 25.10Gimnasia y Tiro3:0
- 19.10away · San Martín de Tucumán2:3
- 10.10Atlético Rafaela4:0
- 04.10away · Agropecuario0:0
- 27.09Tristán Suárez0:1
Head to head
- 13.06.2026CA Ferrocarril Midland — Atlanta1:2
Next matches
- AtlantaClub Atlético Estudiantes15 November · Primera Nacional · preliminary5029211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3
- ColónCA Ferrocarril Midland15 November · Primera Nacional · preliminary4531251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
Primera Nacional on the same day
- 363331XThe most likely outcome came true: X0:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:1.2.0
- 5726171The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- 2229492The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.4
- 6025151The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 3:0.2.5
- 5626181The most likely outcome came true: 15:1Final score 5:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
- 2931402The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:1, exactly right.2.3
- 4531231The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.0
- 5728141The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →