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Saudi Pro League, round 14 · Friday, 20 November, (UTC+3)

Al Ahli — Al-Faisaly

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Model prediction for 20 November

Al Ahli79%
Draw14%
Al-Faisaly7%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Al Ahli are clear favourites: 79% against 7% for the opponent, draw 14%.

3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).

Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 50%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Al Ahli are about 1.5 goals per match stronger.
  • Al Ahli are 317 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • League table: Al Ahli — No. 6, 21 pts; Al-Faisaly — No. 15, 10 pts. A gap of 11 pts.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Al Ahli — Al-Faisaly What is xG?2.6–0.8
Al Ahli not to lose93%
Al-Faisaly not to lose21%
No draw86%
Both teams to score: yes50%
Both teams to score: no50%
Total over 2.563%
Total under 2.537%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Al Ahli
  • Al Ahli goals
  • Al-Faisaly goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatAl AhliAl-Faisaly
Goals scored per match2.71.1
Goals conceded per match1.91.8
xG per match2.751.08
Opponents’ xG1.561.49
Shots14.99.9
On target6.53.1
Corners3.73.0
Cards1.31.9
Possession, %5348

Averages per match: Al Ahli — the last 10, Al-Faisaly — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Al Ahli

  • 30.10away · Al Shabab1:6
  • 23.10Al Khaleej4:1
  • 19.10away · Al-Fayha3:2
  • 09.10away · Al Fateh FC4:0
  • 11.09Al Hazem3:1

Al-Faisaly

  • 31.10away · Al-Fayha1:4
  • 27.10away · Abha1:0
  • 23.10Al Nassr FC1:3
  • 19.10away · Al Shabab2:2
  • 15.10Al Kholood3:2

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
5Neom SC1271418–10+822
6Al Ahli1170428–19+921
7Al-Ettifaq1254318–17+119
14Al Hazem1224614–20-610
15Al-Faisaly1224613–24-1110
16, RelegationAl Fateh FC1213810–25-156

Season 2026/27

Full table

Saudi Pro League on the same day

  • Al-FayhaAl Fateh FCpreliminary
    XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.8
  • Al HilalAl Diriyahpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.4
  • Al KhaleejAl Ittihadpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.1
  • Al Nassr FCAl Qadsiahpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.4
  • Al RiyadhAl Hazempreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
  • Al ShababAl-Ettifaqpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.3
  • Al-TaawounAbhapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
  • Neom SCAl Kholoodpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 79% will not happen in roughly 21 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →