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Saudi Pro League, round 14 · Friday, 20 November, (UTC+3)

Al Nassr FC — Al Qadsiah

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Model prediction for 20 November

Al Nassr FC43%
Draw28%
Al Qadsiah29%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Al Nassr FC are slightly stronger: 43% against 29%, draw 28%.

3.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).

Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 69%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Al Nassr FC are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
  • Al Nassr FC are 93 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • League table: Al Nassr FC — No. 3, 28 pts; Al Qadsiah — No. 2, 28 pts.
  • Al Nassr FC: 4 wins in a row.
  • Last 4 meetings: Al Nassr FC 0 wins, Al Qadsiah 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Al Nassr FC — Al Qadsiah What is xG?1.8–1.5
Al Nassr FC not to lose71%
Al Qadsiah not to lose57%
No draw72%
Both teams to score: yes69%
Both teams to score: no31%
Total over 2.566%
Total under 2.534%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Al Nassr FC
  • Al Nassr FC goals
  • Al Qadsiah goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatAl Nassr FCAl Qadsiah
Goals scored per match2.52.9
Goals conceded per match1.11.0
xG per match1.982.55
Opponents’ xG0.891.23
Shots15.714.8
On target6.16.8
Corners7.75.5
Cards1.61.8
Possession, %5558

Averages per match: Al Nassr FC — the last 10, Al Qadsiah — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Al Nassr FC

  • 29.10Al Kholood5:3
  • 23.10away · Al-Faisaly3:1
  • 20.10Neom SC1:0
  • 09.10Al Diriyah3:0
  • 12.09away · Al Khaleej1:1

Al Qadsiah

  • 29.10away · Al Riyadh6:0
  • 23.10Al Hilal2:3
  • 20.10away · Al-Taawoun1:0
  • 16.10Abha2:1
  • 09.10away · Al Kholood5:0

Head to head

  • 03.05.2026Al Qadsiah — Al Nassr FC3:1
  • 08.01.2026Al Nassr FC — Al Qadsiah1:2
  • 18.04.2025Al Qadsiah — Al Nassr FC2:1
  • 22.11.2024Al Nassr FC — Al Qadsiah1:2

Full record: 4 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1Al Hilal11100132–9+2330
2Al Qadsiah1291232–12+2028
3Al Nassr FC1191128–11+1728
4Al Ittihad1173121–11+1024

Season 2026/27

Full table

Saudi Pro League on the same day

  • Al AhliAl-Faisalypreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.3
  • Al-FayhaAl Fateh FCpreliminary
    XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.8
  • Al HilalAl Diriyahpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.4
  • Al KhaleejAl Ittihadpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.1
  • Al RiyadhAl Hazempreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
  • Al ShababAl-Ettifaqpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.3
  • Al-TaawounAbhapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
  • Neom SCAl Kholoodpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →