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Saudi Pro League, round 14 · Friday, 20 November, (UTC+3)

Al Hilal — Al Diriyah

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Model prediction for 20 November

Al Hilal85%
Draw11%
Al Diriyah4%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Al Hilal are clear favourites: 85% against 4% for the opponent, draw 11%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.4 in total, against a competition average of 3.0.

Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 48%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Al Hilal are about 2.0 goals per match stronger.
  • Al Hilal are 399 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • League table: Al Hilal — No. 1, 30 pts; Al Diriyah — No. 8, 15 pts. A gap of 15 pts.
  • Al Hilal: 5 wins in a row.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Al Hilal — Al Diriyah What is xG?2.7–0.7
Al Hilal not to lose96%
Al Diriyah not to lose15%
No draw89%
Both teams to score: yes48%
Both teams to score: no52%
Total over 2.566%
Total under 2.534%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Al Hilal
  • Al Hilal goals
  • Al Diriyah goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatAl HilalAl Diriyah
Goals scored per match2.80.9
Goals conceded per match0.71.2
xG per match3.351.38
Opponents’ xG0.921.47
Shots20.312.7
On target7.13.0
Corners6.65.1
Cards1.42.2
Possession, %5848

Averages per match: Al Hilal — the last 10, Al Diriyah — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Al Hilal

  • 31.10Al Fateh FC2:0
  • 23.10away · Al Qadsiah3:2
  • 19.10Al Hazem1:0
  • 10.10Al Ittihad3:2
  • 12.09away · Al-Taawoun6:0

Al Diriyah

  • 30.10Neom SC1:2
  • 23.10away · Al Ittihad0:2
  • 20.10Al Riyadh1:0
  • 17.10Al-Taawoun1:1
  • 09.10away · Al Nassr FC0:3

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1Al Hilal11100132–9+2330
2Al Qadsiah1291232–12+2028
7Al-Ettifaq1254318–17+119
8Al Diriyah1243510–13-315
9Al Khaleej1236314–19-515

Season 2026/27

Full table

Saudi Pro League on the same day

  • Al AhliAl-Faisalypreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.3
  • Al-FayhaAl Fateh FCpreliminary
    XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.8
  • Al KhaleejAl Ittihadpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.1
  • Al Nassr FCAl Qadsiahpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.4
  • Al RiyadhAl Hazempreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
  • Al ShababAl-Ettifaqpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.3
  • Al-TaawounAbhapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
  • Neom SCAl Kholoodpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 85% will not happen in roughly 15 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →