UEFA Nations League, round 5, League D, group 1 · Friday, 13 November, 22:45 (UTC+3) · Estadi FAF

Andorra — Gibraltar

Model prediction for 13 November

Andorra41%

Draw36%

Gibraltar24%

Model estimate at 08:05 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Andorra are slightly stronger: 41% against 24%, draw 36%.

The model expects few goals: 1.6 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.

Over 2.5 goals — 20%, both teams to score — 28%.

Why

National-team Elo: Andorra 1056, Gibraltar 1036 — the teams are almost level on rating.

Facts

League table: Andorra — No. 3, 1 pt; Gibraltar — No. 2, 2 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
Last 4 meetings: Andorra 0 wins, Gibraltar 2, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Andorra — Gibraltar What is xG?		0.9–0.6
Andorra not to lose		76%
Gibraltar not to lose		59%
No draw		64%
Both teams to score: yes		28%
Both teams to score: no		72%
Total over 2.5		20%
Total under 2.5		80%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Andorra
Andorra goals
Gibraltar goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Andorra	Gibraltar
Goals scored per match	0.7	0.3
Goals conceded per match	1.5	2.0
xG per match	0.52	0.26
Opponents’ xG	1.57	2.62
Shots	7.8	4.0
On target	2.7	1.0
Corners	2.3	1.6
Cards	3.3	1.9
Possession, %	39	35

Averages per match: Andorra — the last 6, Gibraltar — the last 7 matches in all competitions.

Form

Andorra

04.10away · Malta0:1
30.09away · Lithuania0:3
27.09away · Gibraltar0:0
24.09Malta1:2
07.06away · Kosovo0:3

Gibraltar

05.10away · Liechtenstein2:0
01.10away · Malta1:1
27.09Andorra0:0
23.09Sao Tome and Principe0:0
06.06Cayman Islands4:1

Head to head

27.09.2026Gibraltar — Andorra0:0
04.09.2024Gibraltar — Andorra1:0
19.11.2022Gibraltar — Andorra1:0
07.06.2021Andorra — Gibraltar0:0

Full record: 4 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Promotion to the league above	Malta	3	2	1	0	4–2	+2	7
2, Promotion to the league above	Gibraltar	2	0	2	0	1–1	0	2
3, Promotion to the league above	Andorra	3	0	1	2	1–3	-2	1

Season 2026/27

Full table

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This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →