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UEFA Nations League, round 5, League A, group 2 · Friday, 13 November, (UTC+3) · Stadion Rajko Mitić

Serbia — Germany

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Model prediction for 13 November

Serbia16%
Draw21%
Germany63%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Germany are clear favourites: 63% against 16% for the opponent, draw 21%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.5 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.

Over 2.5 goals — 69%, both teams to score — 64%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Serbia 1683, Germany 1895 — Germany clearly rated higher.

Facts

  • League table: Serbia — No. 4, 0 pts; Germany — No. 3, 5 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
  • Last 2 meetings: Serbia 0 wins, Germany 1, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Serbia — Germany What is xG?1.2–2.3
Serbia not to lose37%
Germany not to lose84%
No draw79%
Both teams to score: yes64%
Both teams to score: no36%
Total over 2.569%
Total under 2.531%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Serbia
  • Serbia goals
  • Germany goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatSerbiaGermany
Goals scored per match0.82.0
Goals conceded per match2.30.8
xG per match0.681.61
Opponents’ xG1.440.79
Shots10.018.7
On target3.76.3
Corners4.57.0
Cards1.51.1
Possession, %4164

Averages per match: Serbia — the last 10, Germany — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Serbia

  • 04.10away · Netherlands1:2
  • 01.10away · Germany0:2
  • 27.09Netherlands1:2
  • 24.09Greece1:2
  • 05.06away · Mexico1:5

Germany

  • 04.10away · Greece0:0
  • 01.10Serbia2:0
  • 27.09Greece0:1
  • 24.09away · Netherlands1:1
  • 29.06Paraguay1:1

Head to head

  • 01.10.2026Germany — Serbia2:0
  • 20.03.2019Germany — Serbia1:1

Full record: 5 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Quarter-finalsNetherlands42207–5+28
2, Quarter-finalsGreece42205–3+28
3Germany41213–2+15
4, Relegation play-offSerbia40043–8-50

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • MoldovaKazakhstanpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4
  • NetherlandsGreecepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
  • ScotlandNorth Macedoniapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
  • SloveniaSwitzerlandpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4
  • SlovakiaFaroe Islandspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.5
  • BulgariaIcelandpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.5
  • LuxembourgEstoniapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.1
  • AndorraGibraltarpreliminary
    XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:01.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 63% will not happen in roughly 37 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →